11/12/2022 - Texas Raiders and P-63 King Cobra collide

[marine air]

At Oshkosh this past year, I was observing how their show is set up with different aircraft types at different altitudes. The L-Birds were on the deck, the fighters at say, 500' AGL and the bombers overhead at 1500' , etc. To me, it looks like the P-63 was following the line or path set by the fighters in front of him. He was keeping the arc, speed, everything. So, the investigators will go back and look at how the airshow was briefed and were all the aircraft involved flying as briefed. At most shows, if you don't attend the briefing you don't get to fly.
At the time of the midair, obviously both aircraft were flying the same show line and altitude. One aircraft was 70 to 100 knots faster than the other. Was that as briefed? I'm not blaming anyone or making any decisions but hope to learn a lot from the NTSB findings. These were great pilots, in well maintained aircraft and they knew what they were doing.

[Xray]

Here is some tasteful and very well informed speculation for those interested. Won't even summarize the conclusion here but seems to be spot on with info that is known combined with video from various angles. Includes a long briefing by the CAF that I was unaware of, of course the guy could and would not go into details and had to decline answering some questions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sceufd1Xutc

Here is another good breakdown from a guy well known for analyzing aviation incidents and topics, including some very eye opening flight data from ADS-B EX, most of you will be aware what that is. Also brought up and detailed runway position, flight paths and crowd line relative to the performing aircraft, which are almost certainly factors in this incident https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C342dfNPCyg

[lucky52]

On the stand,is that an FAA official next to the Air Boss?

[Dave Hadfield]

Accident investigation by social media is unprofessional.

[p51]

Accident investigation by social media is unprofessional.

True, but all of us are wondering what happened to cause this, and many have some insight into this kind of thing beyond what the layman understands.
It's normal for folks to have their theories.

[Xray]

Accident investigation by social media is unprofessional.

Click the links and see for yourself.
Making a youtube vid isn't "social media" the way people think of that term. The 2nd guy in particular is a pilot, civilian and former military, is very knowledgeable and is not making pronouncements, he is very professional. His analysis of aviation incidents are top notch, factual, loaded with insights and have been for years. So just screw all that, everyone should hold their breath and not think about it until the NTSB decides to issue their report weeks or months from now, Ok whatever works for you.

[bluehawk15]

While I can see some not wanting a guessing game about what might have gone wrong, I think it is a good learning tool for those who fly demonstrations. The theories, while they may or may not be what happened in this case, are a good way to get you thinking about what possible situations could happen, and make you more alert to situations you may not have thought about before.

[Xray]

From that 2nd analysis it appears they [all the aircraft] were flying figure 8 patterns, with the fighters on the inside of the bombers on their own track.
Have never seen or heard of parade patterns like that, and its not clear [to me at least] what the vertical separation was [supposed to be] between these groups, if any.

Since Fifi had yet to take off, it appears this happened fairly early in the show.

[RyanShort1]

From that 2nd analysis it appears they [all the aircraft] were flying figure 8 patterns, with the fighters on the inside of the bombers on their own track.
Have never seen or heard of parade patterns like that, and its not clear [to me at least] what the vertical separation was [supposed to be] between these groups, if any.

Since Fifi had yet to take off, it appears this happened fairly early in the show.

I think this is why Dave said what he said. People who weren't there, guessing at stuff and armchair quarterbacking on relatively inane stuff is honestly just, like, um... "useless" is the word I think I want.

[Lynn Allen]

On the stand,is that an FAA official next to the Air Boss?

I would say a spotter or an extra set of eyes.

[JohnB]

I don't think unaffiliated people (i.e. Not with an interested party..operator, government, manufacturer, maintence, insurance, attorney...am I leaving anybody out?) offering opinions or staying publicly accessible facts is an impediment to the official investigation process.
I doubt the NTSB or FAA will be swayed by any such pronouncements.

I think most people are smart enough to realize any opinions are just that.
Like it or not, the accident incurred in a very public venue where "civillians" could have been hurt, so it's to be expected that there will be questions.

People in the aviation community are curious, so they will turn to a trusted forum where they know that people with more knowledge or experience than their own, might be able to give an educated opinion. I doubt if members of the general public would go beyond watching the videos already seen by millions in news broadcasts.

I trust members of the aviation community are at bit smarter than the average member of the public and are able to separate the The internet wheat from the chaff.
It's basically the same age-old hangar talk (pilots talking about other pilots) via a new medium.

This isn't a typical little known GA crash where some self righteous YouTube "expert" excoriates some private pilot who made an error.

Those who are offended by experts (or varying degrees) stating facts or even giving their opinions have the option of not clicking on videos or reading forums.
The opinions might be useless, but since they are unofficial, they are pretty-much harmless.

Last edited by JohnB on Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:25 am, edited 2 times in total.

[Xray]

From that 2nd analysis it appears they [all the aircraft] were flying figure 8 patterns, with the fighters on the inside of the bombers on their own track.
Have never seen or heard of parade patterns like that, and its not clear [to me at least] what the vertical separation was [supposed to be] between these groups, if any.

Since Fifi had yet to take off, it appears this happened fairly early in the show.

I think this is why Dave said what he said. People who weren't there, guessing at stuff and armchair quarterbacking on relatively inane stuff is honestly just, like, um... "useless" is the word I think I
want.

Ok, why are you even viewing this thread then, to read up on all the condolences ?
[edit: Will leave that comment in place, can't take back something said or written, but that was crude and unwarranted, I apologize to Ryan]

The highly unusual tandem figure 8 pattern, altitude separation or lack thereof, runway and crowd positions relative to the aircraft, speeds of the aircraft, aircraft which were trailing and proceeding the accident aircraft, comms they made and received, are hardly "inane stuff", they are at the very heart of why there was an airspace conflict resulting in the tragic loss of lives and machines - And this is not "guessing at stuff", these are FACTS backed up by video, maps and ADS-B tracking data [you know what that is, right ?], as you would have known if you watched the vid. So if you want to just hang tight and wait for the report, feel free no ones stopping you. I personally haven't done a single bit of speculating what/who caused this crash in this thread, as per request in OP, and I intend to keep it that way.

Last edited by Xray on Wed Nov 16, 2022 8:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Jim MacDonald]

I don't think that people are armchair quarterbacking or trying to place blame. I personally am still shocked by the accident and trying to get my head around what happened.

Mac

[Randy Haskin]

The highly unusual tandem figure 8 pattern, altitude separation or lack thereof

No, a dog-bone pattern for an airshow warbird parade isn't "highly unusual" in any way whatsoever. It is one of the two standard methods of doing these shows, with the other being a typical racetrack pattern.

An altitude deconfliction plan -- two independent formations with altitude block separation, with a caveat where the airboss can call the fighters down into the bomber block when it is unoccupied -- is also not unusual. The other type of deconfliction plan is a geographic, using individual patterns physically separated by a "be-no" line.

Neither of the guys producing videos were in the airboss briefing, or know what the planned/briefed deconfliction plan was. Don't let their lack of knowledge translate into thinking there wasn't a plan, that the plan wasn't sound, or that it wasn't understood by the people flying that plan.

Since Fifi had yet to take off, it appears this happened fairly early in the show.

A cursory look at the airshow schedule would tell you why that was.

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[bluehawk15]

A "Figure 8" pattern, as mentioned above, is a common way to get aircraft in front of the spectators faster. For example the Kates, in the Pearl Harbor reenactment, fly past, then do a "duster turn" to get back on the show line for the appropriate direction. Kates are lined up on different sides of the runway (if there is one parallel to the crowd), depending on their direction of flight.