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It is true, by the time the bombs were dropped.., Japan was basically dead in the water anyway.
All their ports were mined beyond access.., all their runways were being constantly pounded.,. they were not manufacturing aircraft or receiving or refining any crude oil. No power plants left, no factories of any sort.
The U.S. was building up a major base of operations on Okinawa.
They had very little aircraft, no skilled pilots and no navy.
Chances are it would have taken no more than 6 months and they would have raised the white flag. Towards the earlier part of August there were no more strategic targets for the B-29's to take out.
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