Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:14 pm
Hard Core Control Freak...
hmmmm
I may have a NEW moniker!
hmmmm
I may have a NEW moniker!
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:17 pm
No, I agree with you. We're all doomed!
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:26 pm
So BDK...
Since the market is down I would be willing to get you out of that warbird... But it would have to be at a greatly reduced cost given the market.
Seriously, we are in for a bumpy time. Aviation survived the Great Depression and came back with a little war from our friends.
Amazingly enough we are repeating the disarming (and now cutting the Space Program) and similar patterns.
Will History Repeat itself? Will we have a deja vu ALL over again?
HARD CORE CONTROL PHREAK
Since the market is down I would be willing to get you out of that warbird... But it would have to be at a greatly reduced cost given the market.
Seriously, we are in for a bumpy time. Aviation survived the Great Depression and came back with a little war from our friends.
Amazingly enough we are repeating the disarming (and now cutting the Space Program) and similar patterns.
Will History Repeat itself? Will we have a deja vu ALL over again?
HARD CORE CONTROL PHREAK
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Mon Jun 28, 2010 10:13 pm
Ellice island-
There seem to be two facets to your question- where is the collection of warbirds as trophies/trinkets/museum pieces going, and where is the collection of warbirds as flyable aircraft going. Both are important questions, with a variety of potential answers, but with very different implications.
If you are after a serious response to your question (which I think is an important question) you might consider asking Mark Clark, the owner of Courtesy who does post here from time to time. Mark has been in the business for decades, and probably has the appropriate long-term perspective (as well as the insider knowledge that comes from transacting in warbirds with some of the most well-known international pilots and collectors.) If he chooses, I'm sure that he could provide a thoughtful response that might answer your question.
BDK and Spanner, on the other hand, are just being pessimistic and cynical...
(or is that just cleverly disguised optimism?)
As someone who has neither the cash nor the piloting skills to own and operate a warbird right now, I am just thankful that there are those who commit the time and resources to maintain and fly these treasures.
kevin
There seem to be two facets to your question- where is the collection of warbirds as trophies/trinkets/museum pieces going, and where is the collection of warbirds as flyable aircraft going. Both are important questions, with a variety of potential answers, but with very different implications.
If you are after a serious response to your question (which I think is an important question) you might consider asking Mark Clark, the owner of Courtesy who does post here from time to time. Mark has been in the business for decades, and probably has the appropriate long-term perspective (as well as the insider knowledge that comes from transacting in warbirds with some of the most well-known international pilots and collectors.) If he chooses, I'm sure that he could provide a thoughtful response that might answer your question.
BDK and Spanner, on the other hand, are just being pessimistic and cynical...
(or is that just cleverly disguised optimism?)As someone who has neither the cash nor the piloting skills to own and operate a warbird right now, I am just thankful that there are those who commit the time and resources to maintain and fly these treasures.
kevin
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Mon Jun 28, 2010 11:22 pm
ellice_island_kid wrote:I hope someone can convince me otherwise.
I'm just curious as to why you keep reposting the same question and ignore the feedback that's been made in your previous threads with exactly the same thought? The counter-data's been presented, yet here's another thread started...
Enquiring minds (well, maybe) want to know.
Regards,
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Tue Jun 29, 2010 10:35 am
JDK wrote:I'm just curious as to why you keep reposting the same question and ignore the feedback that's been made in your previous threads with exactly the same thought? The counter-data's been presented, yet here's another thread started...
Look at the times they were posted...dopplepost.
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Tue Jun 29, 2010 11:10 am
ellice_island_kid wrote:If you guys are looking to buy, now is the time. I would bet if you called up Courtesy and offered $1M cash even you could buy this plane today.
http://www.courtesyaircraft.com/Current ... ustang.htm
I would betcha you can't!
to he!!....sort of
Tue Jun 29, 2010 12:31 pm
the greenies are going to take away our fuel someday, the octane wars are coming! 
jets can run on bio fuels , just another reason to embrace the horror of jets!
jets can run on bio fuels , just another reason to embrace the horror of jets!
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:56 pm
airnutz wrote:JDK wrote:I'm just curious as to why you keep reposting the same question and ignore the feedback that's been made in your previous threads with exactly the same thought? The counter-data's been presented, yet here's another thread started...
Look at the times they were posted...dopplepost.
... following a couple of other threads started with the same theme. I may be missing something, hence my question.
search.php?author_id=30443&sr=posts
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Tue Jun 29, 2010 7:44 pm
JDK wrote:airnutz wrote:JDK wrote:I'm just curious as to why you keep reposting the same question and ignore the feedback that's been made in your previous threads with exactly the same thought? The counter-data's been presented, yet here's another thread started...
Look at the times they were posted...dopplepost.
... following a couple of other threads started with the same theme. I may be missing something, hence my question.
http://www.warbirdinformationexchange.o ... 3&sr=posts
Hi James,
I may have taken the original post the wrong way too but keeping my comments to myself.
To me the real value in warbirds is the history each airframe brings with them.
I don't think I could care less the $$$ of a warbird. These machines are living examples and in some cases actual combat vets. I beleive that WWII saw the most out of people in times of need. Also some people may not beleive in legends and heroes. Amazing true and unbeleivable stories did happen and are real. Those facts can never die.
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Wed Jun 30, 2010 1:12 pm
Warbirds follow the same principals as the rest of the economy – supply vs. demand A couple of years ago when there was an increase in the supply of the aircraft types that were formerly used as fire bombers the price of those types went down because the supply increased faster than the demand. The demand for aircraft of that size and price does not increase overnight, so there is no option but for the price to go down. There have been TBM’s in fire-bomber condition for sale for less than $100,000 in the past 3 or 4 years. The initial purchase price is a small percentage compared to restoration and operation costs when it comes to owning a warbird.
As for the more popular types like P-51s, P-40’s, spitfires, and B-17’s the demand and cost is not coming down much at all. As for offering $1 million cash for a P-51 that is listed for $1.5 million, I am pretty sure that the current owner would tell you where to go as soon as he quit laughing. The supply is still extremely limited, and the demand has not fallen enough to come close to matching supply. There may be a few aircraft that are over priced for what other aircraft in the market are selling for, but they does not indicate a trend of decreasing values. Each aircraft is different, so just because one P-51 sold for $1.5 million does not mean all P-51s are worth that. That is why people with so much experience like Mark Clark sell a lot of airplanes. They know how to evaluate an aircraft on all of its qualities, not just the fact that it is a P-51.
As for doing restoration on an aircraft that you have, do it out of love for the type, not to make $ on it. There are enough owners/operators on here that will tell you that there are very few cases where you can sell an aircraft for more than you have in the project. That applies to everything from Stearmans, T-6’s, to P-51’s. It is not rarity that sets the selling price, it is demand. If nobody wants your one-of-a-kind aircraft it is not going to be worth much regardless of how much you have invested.
As for the more popular types like P-51s, P-40’s, spitfires, and B-17’s the demand and cost is not coming down much at all. As for offering $1 million cash for a P-51 that is listed for $1.5 million, I am pretty sure that the current owner would tell you where to go as soon as he quit laughing. The supply is still extremely limited, and the demand has not fallen enough to come close to matching supply. There may be a few aircraft that are over priced for what other aircraft in the market are selling for, but they does not indicate a trend of decreasing values. Each aircraft is different, so just because one P-51 sold for $1.5 million does not mean all P-51s are worth that. That is why people with so much experience like Mark Clark sell a lot of airplanes. They know how to evaluate an aircraft on all of its qualities, not just the fact that it is a P-51.
As for doing restoration on an aircraft that you have, do it out of love for the type, not to make $ on it. There are enough owners/operators on here that will tell you that there are very few cases where you can sell an aircraft for more than you have in the project. That applies to everything from Stearmans, T-6’s, to P-51’s. It is not rarity that sets the selling price, it is demand. If nobody wants your one-of-a-kind aircraft it is not going to be worth much regardless of how much you have invested.
Re: where is warbird collecting going?
Wed Jun 30, 2010 4:40 pm
Most of us are well aware of the fixed wing firebomber debacle; have a look in the period on WIX for some further analysis from your comments.
There have always been more Avengers and Catalinas available than the market wants, and they've also always been 'undervalued' financially as a result. On that basis, either would make a 'great investment' as their desirability will go up, as the numbers available inevitably decrease - eventually. So it might be your great grandchildren who collect on your 'investment'.
But warbirds are not a financial investment; it's that simple. If you look at your 'rare warbird' as a ticket price, you are in the wrong game.
kmiles is quite right.
ellice_island_kid wrote:A couple years ago I saw PBY's at auction one of which sold for I believe about $150k. Avengers can now also be had for no more that that in restored condition.
There have always been more Avengers and Catalinas available than the market wants, and they've also always been 'undervalued' financially as a result. On that basis, either would make a 'great investment' as their desirability will go up, as the numbers available inevitably decrease - eventually. So it might be your great grandchildren who collect on your 'investment'.
But warbirds are not a financial investment; it's that simple. If you look at your 'rare warbird' as a ticket price, you are in the wrong game.
kmiles is quite right.