Warbird Information Exchange

fossett knows survival techniques. even if he didn't, he could go a week with out water. i'm confident he's ok. cnn reported that searchers stated his emergency transponder did not activate, neither manually, or in a worst case scenario impact.

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tom d. friedman - hey!!! those fokkers were messerschmitts!! * without ammunition, the usaf would be just another flying club!!! * better to have piece of mind than piece of tail!!

Maybe the transponder was removed for service? Or maybe the impact was severe enough to knock the battery loose or cause the transponder to not function.

My confidence level is low (especially with CNN reporting, but that is another topic altogether).

What are the percentages for survival in this scenario?

Apparently a new aircraft with advanced search radar? is joinging the search today. It can pick out even a 10% piece of the plane from amongst the hills brush etc.

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Cheers,
Peter

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Sounds like they're sending in one of the Airvans. Can't speak much on what's inside it specifically (what little I do know as a member of CAP is still "sensitive" information according to NHQ) but the system is call ARCHER and is a hyperspectral imaging system. I think there is some information available on the net as to what the system is designed to do, but I don't want to reveal anything that I'm not supposed to so can only suggest that you do a search for ARCHER on a major search site or the CAP website (www.cap.gov).

1) The ELT (Emergency Locator Transmitter) is required for flight of the aircraft he was flying. It is also required to be in proper working order. Steve is fastidious about making sure his equipment is in good working order as is Baron Hilton, the owner of the aircraft in question (via the Flying M Ranch).

2) I have not heard of an occasion where an impact was so severe with a light aircraft that the ELT did not survive and activate as designed. The ELT is built with the same survivability as a Black Box and many of the same materials, so it is very likely that if there is no ELT transmission, there was not an impact great enough to trigger it. One must remember that most ELT activations that CAP receives from AFRCC (Air Force Rescue Command Center) are inadvertent activations from a hard landing that did no damage to the airplane. So if you can activate the ELT just by making a hard landing or slamming a door shut and no damage results to the airplane, then it's highly unlikely that if there's not an ELT being picked up, that the plane is most likely intact.

3) (Unrelated to the quoted item) Mr. Fossett did tell several people where he was going. He was going south to check out several dry lakes for a possible land speed record attempt in the future. The problem is that there are a lot of dry lakes there and with his airplane having 5 hours of fuel aboard, it creates a large search area. Without an ELT transmission, CAP and other search assets will just have to search foot-by-foot from the air.

I would think if he were able he'd manually activate the ELT.

I pray for his safety and quick rescue.

I may have missed this in an earlier post, but does anyone know what he was flying. All I heard was a Bellanca. Viking, Scout, Decathalon...?

The human body can survive about three days without water. In a desert environment (he's in a high desert) you don't have a lot of time before dehydration gets you. I'm sure he knows how to get what water there is out of the landscape, but it's the end of summer. Here in LA we were going through a pretty severe heat wave when he went down. I expect it was no better there. If he went down and was uninjured, he may still be alive. That's a pretty big may. If he was injured he is probably dead. That's pretty rough country, which improved the chances of his being injured in a crash. But it also gives him a higher chance of getting out if he walked away from the crash, due to the valleys he can find daytime shade in, and water sources.
I wouldn't give him very high odds, folks. That's a hard place. And not having turned his transponder on worries me more. If he were mobile it would be the first thing he woud do.

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"I knew the jig was up when I saw the P-51D-20-NA Mustang blue-nosed bastards from Bodney, and by the way the blue was more of a royal blue than an indigo and the inner landing gear interiors were NOT green, over Berlin."

Some news reports stated he was in a Decathlon.

-Pat

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Trust me, I know what I'm doing.

I remember a few years ago, in Germany I believe, an AH-64 went down in a steep valley. The ELT went off, but was not picked up until one of our RC's was almost directly over the crash site. Fortunately, both helo crew were rescued. Could be the same here - steep terrain, and the ELT is a line-of-sight device, so a SAR plane'd have to be pretty close in to pick up the signal..

Do hope he's found, tho...soon, and alive!

(Been on too many of those search flights)

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Bob

I read that he also had a watch he was wearing that had an ELT.

I have witnessed three hard impact aerobatic accidents (unfortunately one from inside the cockpit), and though they were on the ELTs did not go off in any of the three. In all three cases the aircraft were completely destroyed and occupants were severely injured.

I still have hope for Steve Fossett. They are talking about a lot of ground to cover, and he very well could have just had to set it down somewhere after an engine problem.

Here's the pictures of the airplane that have been on the news... a Super Decathlon

http://www.airport-data.com/aircraft/N240R.html

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Zane Adams
There I was at 20,000 ft, upside down and out of ammunition.
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was just cruising msnbc website checking any updates on mr fossett. it said he was wearing a transponder, more than likely a breitling watch with that feature. i used to be a breitling dealer, so i'm familiar with it. quite expensive & state of the art. when activated the transponder links to satellite to broadcast a signal. a few years back a breitling owner accidently activated the feature, the emergency went out, rescue crews mobilized, & it was a false alarm. if fossett has that watch, it should have had about 72 hours of transmitting capability before the battery went dry. fossett has climbed mountains, & has done it all. he's quite adept in survival situations. let's keep hoping & praying for his good luck.

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tom d. friedman - hey!!! those fokkers were messerschmitts!! * without ammunition, the usaf would be just another flying club!!! * better to have piece of mind than piece of tail!!