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When Hollywood Ruled The Skies - Volumes 1 through 4 by Bruce Oriss


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:44 am 
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Posts: 543
fiftycal wrote:
that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.


While some people have made $ on warbirds..for the most part is not a profiteering enterprise. if you have the mindset that "I have $X in the recovery of these bits...that means they are worth $X" then its on you. People spend $ recovering these parts and wrecks for the purpose of preservation, not for profit. Remember in the mid 90's when north of $3 million was spent on the recovery and restoration of glacier girl at a time when a flyable p-38 could be had for less than a million? same difference...


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:44 am 
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fiftycal wrote:
that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.


While some people have made $ on warbirds..for the most part is not a profiteering enterprise. if you have the mindset that "I have $X in the recovery of these bits...that means they are worth $X" then its on you. People spend $ recovering these parts and wrecks for the purpose of preservation, not for profit. Remember in the mid 90's when north of $3 million was spent on the recovery and restoration of glacier girl at a time when a flyable p-38 could be had for less than a million? same difference...


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:44 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:46 pm
Posts: 543
fiftycal wrote:
that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.


While some people have made $ on warbirds..for the most part is not a profiteering enterprise. if you have the mindset that "I have $X in the recovery of these bits...that means they are worth $X" then its on you. People spend $ recovering these parts and wrecks for the purpose of preservation, not for profit. Remember in the mid 90's when north of $3 million was spent on the recovery and restoration of glacier girl at a time when a flyable p-38 could be had for less than a million? same difference...


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:45 am 
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Joined: Wed Jan 04, 2012 12:46 pm
Posts: 543
fiftycal wrote:
that cobras was sold but i listed another with a good history, confirmed kill, substantially complete, with new parts as well and there are many many tire kickers out there but no buyers, even listed at HALF the cost of recovery.

i have enough to finish my aircraft and even offer support, parts etc as things are built but it seems no market exists, thats why a lot of stuff gets scrapped. storage is expensive, recoveries are not worth it w/o a market.


While some people have made $ on warbirds..for the most part is not a profiteering enterprise. if you have the mindset that "I have $X in the recovery of these bits...that means they are worth $X" then its on you. People spend $ recovering these parts and wrecks for the purpose of preservation, not for profit. Remember in the mid 90's when north of $3 million was spent on the recovery and restoration of glacier girl at a time when a flyable p-38 could be had for less than a million? same difference...


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 10:46 am 
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Posts: 306
its not about profit, you have to get multiples to get parts you need, i have most all i need now. doesnt not mean i will give stuff away. "enthusiasts" are a detriment to the warbird community in general, there is a lot of sht talking from nobodies who know it all and have done nothing :drink3:


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:15 am 
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Posts: 543
fiftycal wrote:
its not about profit, you have to get multiples to get parts you need, i have most all i need now. doesnt not mean i will give stuff away. "enthusiasts" are a detriment to the warbird community in general, there is a lot of sht talking from nobodies who know it all and have done nothing :drink3:



Keep this in mind...without the "enthusiasts" there >IS< >NO< warbird community. Without the "enthusiasts" there are no airshows. there are no restorations. there are no donations. There are no rides. There is no point. The "enthusiast" who spends $25 on a gate fee at an airshow is just as important to the warbird community as the trust fund billionaire who's flying his personal collection at said airshow. No one is better than the other. Now, do you kiss your mother with ur foul mouth? U take the crown for biggest hypocrite on this board! why do you bother? LOL...Thanks for the good laugh today..I needed it! pop2 pop1


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:23 am 
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Posts: 306
well no its not, im building because i like to fly, not for strokers to watch me fly. 'enthusiasts'..are the biggest sht talkers out there, especially on these forums, wow $25 at the gate big spender, that $25 means you know it all and can criticize people who actually get off their arses and make things happen


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:11 pm 
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You were doing fine until .......
Quote:
"enthusiasts" are a detriment to the warbird community"
and
Quote:
'enthusiasts'..are the biggest sh*t talkers out there, especially on these forums

I, for one, respect your restoration efforts and wish you nothing but success, but I'm not too sure your quotes should be taken too seriously by anyone playing on these internet forums. And if anyone does take them seriously, then your probably right. :wink:

I'll wait to see your choice of paint scheme before I start my internet forum sh*t talking show ..... 8) Just kidding ya of course. Best of luck on your projects.

M

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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:37 pm 
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sorry i wasnt referring to everyone, but there is a bunch of those types around


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Tim Savage wrote:
......I don't see any lack of interest from younger guys either...it just takes them a while to accumulate the needed bucks to do it. I used to be one of the young guys..not so much anymore :)


Not so sure I see the same enthusiasm in the younger guys- and the age of many enthusiasts and some of the major benefactors might be an issue in coming years. Will they get replaced by those with the same passions? Some of the great folks that funded the major projects that have made headlines in the past decade are not getting younger (no names- but I thank them tremendously for sharing their passion with us). Their efforts have kept the shops open and booked, put food on the table for many and have kept the lights on. Many understand that the dream may be over when these benefactors move on. Heirs and foundations may not have the same drive or interests these few determined folks have. If major collections are parted out and there is less enthusiasm for multi million dollar rebuilds, we could see that effect the market.


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:09 pm 
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Posts: 38
A comparison between high-performance warbirds and vintage cars was made earlier, something which to me has always been like comparing apples and bananas:

1) Anybody can drive any vintage car and live to tell the story; just drive it slowly and carefully. Won't work with an aircraft like a P-51.
2) Running costs of any restored vintage car are minimal compared with e.g. a P-51.
3) A vintage car doesn't take up much space when stored and doesn't need to be disassembled; not so with a WW2 warbird.
4) No fretting necessary regarding certification and stuff when remanufacturing vintage car spare parts.

So vintage cars will, relatively speaking, always command higher prices and be a better "investment" than any WW2 aircraft.

The one commodity which there is a shortage of today, and which money cannot buy, is TIME. Disregarding the money necessary, it takes TIME to learn to fly and to get qualified to fly a WW2 warbird. No amount of money can make any significant changes to that. The modern generation has little time and little patience, instant results are required.

However, given the relatively small amount of aircraft of this type still around, I think there'll be enough determined people around who one way or the other will restore and/or get themselves qualified to fly WW2 warbirds, the latter whether out of their own pocket or through good connections. I don't think it was easier or cheaper 30 years ago to get qualified to fly somebody else's warbird.


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 15, 2017 3:52 pm 
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jtramo wrote:
I fly professionally at a 121 carrier and in the past decade of doing so only met a handful of pilots who even care about aviation at all.


Very few "professional pilots" have an interest in recreational flying, be that 91, 121, 135, military, etc. Boggles my mind how they get that way, but at some point it becomes just a job.

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I am only in my 20s but someday I will fly it at airshows. I am getting rich really fast writing software and so I can afford to do really stupid things like put all my money into warbirds.


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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 9:12 am 
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I agree, Randy, except that's because we are among the few bitten by the "bug", so our viewpoint is skewed. I'm sure there are computer programmers who don't go home and program, construction guys who don't build fun stuff, dry cleaners who are seen with wrinkled shirts, etc. and that's (as you well know) also how so many pilots look at aviation as a potential hobby.

Out of the 315+ million people in the US, our group of true warbird aficionados is an infinitesimally small percentage. If I were generous and said there were 10,000 of us who were really into it (pilots, mechanics, docents, researchers, restorers, buffs, etc), that's about 0.000032 percent of the population.

Rejoice in your uniqueness! :drink3:

Ken

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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:37 pm 
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One Percenters... :P

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 Post subject: Re: P-51 Market analysis
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2017 7:48 pm 
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Back to the original question once again. There is a factor that, while helping drive the popularity of Mustangs, also serves to keep the values down. There is a small but steady supply of new ones.

The high end of the collector car market has gotten very high indeed. $20 to 30 million or even more. A big reason is that only a few were made and the serial numbers are well documented. There were only a few Ferrari TR's and GTO's made, and their existence or demise is known. There is no possibilty of whipping up another one and claiming provenance.

Compare that to Mustangs, where there is a virtually unlimited number of serial numbers to dig up and claim provenance. Like almost every P-51B now flying. Further proof is seen in the value of a Bearcat or Corsair, compared to a P-40 or P-51. The P-51 is THE iconic fighter. It should arguably be the most valued. Supply and demand rule the free market, as ever.

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