Has the Cessna L-19/O-1 Market Collapsed

[menards]

Interesting thread, and perhaps high time for this one on the WIX.

The L-19, or any of these "markets" are casualties of the steady decline in pilots nationwide, and the current fact that very few people will choose to fly airplanes in the future. I have been a professional pilot for 16 years, and would have never expected to see what we are seeing today in the regional airline world as far as pilot hiring. There is nobody out there. Hardly anyone is choosing this as a career, and that is the bedrock of General Aviation participation. Airshows and fly ins thirty plus years ago were full of restored Staggerwings and Howards, Navions and even L-19's. Today there arent really any of those anymore. The fly-ins are gone, and the ones that remain have diminished to the point that few spectators come out anymore either. Why is this?

Flying, or a life in aviation is a rare choice because it takes a lot of work and effort to become a pilot. Further, not everyone that tries succeeds for a variety of reasons. Those that do, should they choose to keep moving "up the ladder" must continue to learn and focus on the specifics of the next type of aircraft or rating, and continue to pass. For all there will be a ceiling, where that is is tough to discern sometimes, but it happens. Today what is notable is few try. It has never been easier to become a pilot. Never. This is the best time that I have ever seen. Still nobody is really showing up.

For the new hires at the airline here, virtually none have tailwheel endorsements, seaplane ratings or a desire to own and fly their own plane beyond idle dreaming. Something like an L-19 is a complete abstraction. They don't know what it is, why it was built and what the reason for the fact that it only has one other seat. Working on airplanes and searching for parts is a huge part of the fun of warbirds, but its not an easy thing, and those that want to do it are rare. Those who have a place to do it are rarer still.

While few here would want a new Cirrus SR-22, how many people want to buy one? A few. What do they cost? Perhaps $600,000 with all the bells shined brand new. And then when they have their new plane and look for a hangar in a metropolitan area they are told that hangars are a three year wait or more and they have to use a tie down or go do an airport 55 minutes away. How many folks buy a new Ferrari convertible and then park it on the street because they have no garage? Another point is thus that General Aviation has always restricted supply of hangars and other infrastructure, in order to avoid a glut or collapse in prices on hangars and facilities. Mission accomplished. But its hard to get excited about an L-19 when you realize you have to go on a tie down or have to buy or sublease a hangar at some crazy high rate. Hangar in Southern California $1000 a month. Hangar in San Marco Texas, not much different right now. Rents are going up because there aren't as many airplanes! They need to hit their targets for rent! So interestingly my hangar rent went from 400 to 1000 dollars in one year. Amazing.

The P-51 is for the short term immune from this, and perhaps for the long term. Many buyers aren't concerned with professional pilot jobs, and enjoy a lot of toys. But the bedrock of Warbird aviation is the yeoman types. Stearmans, T-6 and L-19's. Waco's and Staggerwings and the antiques are also to some another way in. There are few buyers. And that is for whole airplanes. Projects? Who would do that? I realize that my Stearman project will cost a large amount to restore, but if I finish in 2020, what would it be worth? There wont be anyone rated to fly it perhaps by that point that would want to even allow me to break even in cost. A sobering discovery.

Lets look at the WIX lastly. How many of us are here that love airplanes? How many of us fly airplanes. How many of us OWN airplanes. Probably a high percentage. But its still a percentage. Why doesn't everyone at airshows, who spends thousands on cameras or RC models or starts at IPMS model contests transition to real planes? What was different about the few that did?

I have a good job, and I am in the process of getting the best one for me. The job search is hard, but finding the company that you want to pair with is a hard fight. I am hoping my job search is over and I have that "Last Job" that I can take to retirement. I simply love the airlines for the security some of them can give you, and you get to fly all day (and some nights) to boot. But I spend a lot of time away. And my money goes into airplanes. I won't have a big house because of it. I have chosen three airplanes to go through life with so far, and that financial decision is a big one. It means I have made choices about things I won't have. I would love an L-19. But there are a lot of other beautiful airplanes out there too. I can only "afford" (not the correct word) three (assuming a Spitfire project does not fall into my lap). I'm doing great. But I am a rarity in my airliner. Few I fly with have the passion.

Airplane values will decrease and the legions of airplanes that are leaving us now will not be replaced. Its sad L-129 values are dropping, but sadder still that old 150's 152's and 172's are being parted or scrapped for lack of interest in simple repairs. The bedrock of general aviation is disappearing. Want to fix this? Then those of you that are out there, on the couch or in a chair who have an interest need to devote your time and effort into an investment. Invest in yourself. Save that Cessna 150 and restore it to factory colors. Learn to fly it. Travel in in and learn about the courage and strength you never knew about that was inside you all along. Find that 182. Move up into a Bonanza. Try out a Champ and then a Citabria. Then go find and save the plane that you want. And along the way encourage and help others do the same...

You can get yourself into a Cherokee project for under 10k. A Flyer for less than 20k. Cherokee's, for all intents and purposes, don't need to be kept inside. a tiedown will work just fine. Makes flying no more expensive than the new harley....or the boat...or whatever indulgence. I think there is just lack of interest. Less people flying means less people exposed to it. My wife wont let me take the kids...or her...and is lukewarm about even me going up. "Dangerous" is the repeated word. My response "getting out of bed is dangerous". We're about about going for rides up in the pea soup. Clear blue skies and zero wind days is still thought of as "too dangerous"

[L-4Pilot]

I can't speak for the L 19 but I have owned my L 4 since 2010. It was fully restored and had just received judges choice at Oshkosh. I actually bought it off eBay for 29k. The aircraft burns about 4 gph annuals cost under 700 a year and insurance costs under 700 a year. Since I bought it I have logged just over 400 hours in it. Without a doubt it's the most fun I have ever had flying.
So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird. It attracts attention and it is always an honor to explain to people what it is and what it did in WW 2. They are also light sport and I am not aware of any other warbird that is. I guess the point I am trying to make is their are some L Birds out there you can get into for a reasonable amount and actually be able to afford to go out and fly the thing. Well if you call 65 mph and a 130 mile range flying. I do and have no regrets.
That said I still dream of owning that P 51 one day!

It's pretty hard to beat a L-4 on a warm summer day

[L-4Pilot]

Way back in the mid 80's I flew my L-4 from Knoxville, Tn. to Sun and Fun. Took two days going down and two days coming home. 21.7 hours on the tach.

There was a wind out of the South going down and I was flying low for best ground speed and following the interstate most of the way and saw some aircraft pass me as I chugged a long at 60 mph GS.

The afternoon I landed a Gentleman walked up to the plane and mentioned that he had passed me just South of Macon Ga. I asked him what he was flying and he said, Oh, we were in a green and white Winnebago on the Interstate.

[Cvairwerks]

Last airshow at Carswell I attended, I flew over there with my buddy Mike Lee in his Fi-156. 2 hours and 45 minutes to make it about 15 miles from Oliver Farms to Carswell....We were 45 mins across Lake Worth.

[RacingMustang]

The Stearmans market is down also. A friend has two, including one he just just finished. And was saying he couldn't sell it for what he had in it ( though that not his goal, he just doesn't need two of them).

Definitely noticed that myself. Seeing a lot more under $100k these days.

[Speeddemon651]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned yet; being a N2S-5 project owner myself. I'm always looking for parts and have come across a number of people saying that they have sold a lot of Stearman, BT-13 & T-6 parts overseas lately. Maybe where things have slowed down here, it's picked up elsewhere.

[JohnB]

....I have owned my L 4 since 2010....
So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird.

No, that would be an L-2 or 3. Their values have always been behind the Piper.

Another poster mentioned that he thought interest in the big 30-40s classics like Staggerwings and Howard's were falling.
I think some of those will always have a market...younger guys are buying and flying them. One issue is pilot experience...it takes a seasoned hand (and feet!) to control a Staggerwing on the ground. A friend sold his to a guy who just couldn't fly it properly...and who promptly sold it to someone who could.

Again, there are parallels to the old car hobby. For years people were saying that brass (pre-1920) cars would fall in value when the old timers who saw them as kids died off.
It hasn't happened. Young collectors appreciate their worth and place in history.

Last edited by JohnB on Fri Jun 03, 2016 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Speeddemon651]

....I have owned my L 4 since 2010....
So while probably the lowest rung on the warbird ladder it is still a warbird.

No, that would be an L-2 or 3. Their values have always been behind the Piper.

Another poster mentioned that he thought interest in the big 30-40s classics like Staggerwings and Howard's were falling.
I think some of those will always have a market...younger guys are buying and flying them. One issue is pilot experience...it takes a seasoned hand (and feet!) to control a Staggerwing on the ground. A friend sold his to a guy who just couldn't fly it properly...and who promptly sold it to someone who could.
Again, there are parallels to the old car hobby. For years people were saying that brass (pre-1920) cars would fall in value when the old timers who say them as kids died off.
It hasn't happened. Young collectors appreciate their worth and place in history.

I can agree with that, I actually just bought a nice 1943 D-17S Staggerwing project that has been stored since 1978. I paid going rate for it and I'm in my early 30's. I also have a great N2S-5 project that's 3/4's finished too. I got a once in a lifetime deal on it but I also have been working 80 hrs a week since 2006 to pay for warbirds.

[snj-5]

$3K seems high for $80K hull, but I suppose it all has to do with the number of type airplanes in the fleet being covered by the underwriters compared with the number of type claims they have to pay out when something goes wrong. Is a Birddog that much different to land/take off than a Cessna 180? $80K hull on my '54 Cessna 180 (that I just sold) was just under $1K/year. Probably a lot more 180s out there flying with a fewer percentage of claims / incidents across the 180 fleet.

The '52 C-195 I just bought came in @ $1,600/year for $80K hull (lot less 195s flying, they only made ~1100 of them total).

In any event, the used airplane market isn't what it used to be... I had to take less money for the 180 than I would have taken, say, 5 years ago,
although I still made money on the airplane after owning it for ~10 years and putting about ~700 hours on it. The frown on my face
when I was a 180 seller was replaced by a smile when I became a 195 buyer (it is a buyer's market for sure!).

Bela P. Havasreti

[Speeddemon651]

when I was a 180 seller was replaced by a smile when I became a 195 buyer (it is a buyer's market for sure!).

I think it really depends on what it is and whats hot in the market at the time. I researched L-4's last year for about 6 months before I purchased one. There are a lot of Cubs out there painted OD green and played off as L-4s but in reality there are only around 120 actual L-4's left in the US. Beyond those 120, 30 more or so are just paperwork from total losses decades ago.

I stepped up and paid good money for my L-4J because there are so few out there and real ones don't come up for sale that often. Cub prices on the open market don't ever seem to go down.

If anyone wants an excel spread sheet of L-4's are out there with N number, serial, owner, address, engine & when was last air worthy PM me.

[RyanShort1]

I think a lot hast to do with fuel prices and mission. The L-19/O-1 isn't fast enough, or carry enough to be as much of a "go places" airplane as other aircraft in it's price range, and burns more fuel than a weekend flyer that doesn't have nostalgic reasons to own it would want.

[L-4Pilot]

when I was a 180 seller was replaced by a smile when I became a 195 buyer (it is a buyer's market for sure!).

I think it really depends on what it is and whats hot in the market at the time. I researched L-4's last year for about 6 months before I purchased one. There are a lot of Cubs out there painted OD green and played off as L-4s but in reality there are only around 120 actual L-4's left in the US. Beyond those 120, 30 more or so are just paperwork from total losses decades ago.
I stepped up and paid good money for my L-4J because there are so few out there and real ones don't come up for sale that often. Cub prices on the open market don't ever seem to go down.
If anyone wants an excel spread sheet of L-4's are out there with N number, serial, owner, address, engine & when was last air worthy PM me.

I get a couple of calls a year from people who are buying an L-4 and this is the information I provide them.

There are probably less than a dozen original, authentic highly documented L-4s here in the US and by that I mean aircraft that meet some or all all of the necessary qualifications. here is how I personally grade L-4s and their value.

A grade 10 would be ( I have seen only one in 40 years)
Original data plates, original log books dating back to the day they left the military with military time brought forward to the civilian logbook. Original paperwork with the aircraft that shows the initial registration bearing the N#, serial # etc. bill of sale etc. Matching #s on the engine from early maintenance documents and logs, the same engine it had when it left the army at the depot (not factory). A good frame tag located on the cross member that matches back to the factory record showing that frame # and the Piper serial #. A bonus would be AAF accident reports that show damage to cowlings or frame and these are visible on the aircraft before restoration. It would be expected that new wood spars would be installed but overall the original wing components have been repaired and reused where possible.

A Grade 8/9 would be: ( There are maybe six of these)
Original data plates, some missing logs and original paper but verified thru a FAA CD. An original military O-170 engine with depot stamps and or data plate. A good frame tag that matches back to the factory record and ties back to the Piper serial #. A bonus would be AAF accident reports with visible damage documented. Wood spars with most original components reused.

A Grade 5/7 would be: ( several of these)
Original data plates and logs are missing but frame tag matches back to factory record showing the frame tag is consistent with the factory serial #. May be rebuilt with new aluminum spars and other improvements. FAA records show the N# matches everything else. A post 1946 A-65 engine installed.

A grade 3/5 would be: (lots of these)
No original data plates, no frame tag, log books and N # tie back to an L-4 that no longer exists, however the frame is an authentic L-4 frame with the welded level point and other identifying features. Frame is either one of several hundred surplus L-4 frames sold by Piper at the end of the war that were used to rebuild hundreds of Piper Cubs, or aircraft is a parts airplane put together from several others with mixed J-3 and L-4 parts.

A grade 1/3 would be (lots of these)
Never was a L-4, started life as a J-3 and the paperwork is for a J-3.

There is a lot more than what I have listed above but you can understand that there are in fact very few original, authentic L-4s out there. However all of the aircraft if well done can be enjoyed.

I could post lots of photos to show examples but will show only a few starting with frame tags.

[L-4Pilot]

These are some of the original logbook entries and documents you would want to see on a grade 10 L-4. These happen to be on a O-58A

[L-4Pilot]

The first photo is a real 100% authentic L-4 that I bought in 1976. At that time it had lots of original paperwork and documents, data plates etc. It had been redone as a civilian J-3 but I had the original 337 where they removed the greenhouse. The second photo is a fake L-4 I owned built up with an authentic L-4 fuselage with no frame tag. Logs matched a civilian J-3.

[Speeddemon651]

A Grade 8/9 would be: ( There are maybe six of these)
Original data plates, some missing logs and original paper but verified thru a FAA CD. An original military O-170 engine with depot stamps and or data plate. A good frame tag that matches back to the factory record and ties back to the Piper serial #. A bonus would be AAF accident reports with visible damage documented. Wood spars with most original components reused.

I think the value of mine just went up! It's a solid 8/9. Was built 3 days before the end of the was and was sold surplus. It went to TX and stayed in a family for most of it's life. Still only has a little over 800 hrs TT and is very original.