Warbird Information Exchange

I will keep this short.

With the introduction of the LSA into the market, you actually have more people getting back into aviation.

The foreign flyers coming over to the states to get their ratings are very high now.

More people are flying themselves (small jets and single/multi engine) over taking the airline flying hassle.

It is NOT was it was in the 80s during the oil boom, but it is still there and will maintain itself as it is.

Avgas is NOT going away anytime soon.

As bdk said, you're right, we are all doomed.

Meanwhile elsewhere in the news...

There's no proof that a decrease will continue at the same rate all the way to zero.

In a free market, aviation will respond to the financial benefits of it, as it clearly is doing internationally.

Regulation moderates or restricts that supply and demand cycle, but neither will guarantee the reduction of aviation or leisure aviation (including warbirds) to zero.

If I want to go overseas, I have to fly. Travelling in Australia depends on aviation. Travel around Europe nowadays has flying as a competitive alternative to rail or road. Aviation is not going to just disappear.

After commentating on the warbird industry for about a quarter century, I can see there is always an ebb and flow in unit numbers and trading but there is a greater variety of preserved and active warbirds now than there has ever been. Quality and infrastructure of restorations is about as great as it has been, to a higher quality than ever. Actual warbird numbers may or may not be at a peak, but there is certainly no crash in numbers as you are implying.

Warbirds are, despite claims to the contrary, not a financial investment market, but an expense requiring significant cash for entry. Measuring the market on ticket prices alone is poor analysis, and is only one factor in determining interest and future viability.

Rather than playing Chicken Little we can all play a part by advocating aviation to the non-enthusiasts, sharing it if we've got it, and supporting it.

The arguments about fuel availability or green requirements are unresolved.

And even if you are right, then it behoves us to enjoy what we've got, while it's there, rather than closing the hangar doors and crying into our drinks about tomorrow.

Regards,

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James K

"Switch on the underwater landing lights"
Emilio Largo, Thunderball.

www.VintageAeroWriter.com

when the greenies get their way our fuel will be gone or it will cost so much it wont be realistic to fly them.
(round 2)

If you're that worried, round up all your friends and find the closest ballot box in the fall!

I'd go one step further that this. If you enjoy it, you need to share it with others.
I think that part of today's stigma against general aviation has to do with a bad cycle. Someone does something bad, or stupid. So the government intervenes and the regulations or security levels get tighter. So much so that now it is MUCH harder to get started in aviation than it used to be. The days of the kids going out to the airports are not over in rural America, or even in some of the suburbs in some cities, but that's not what most of them think of as the airport. They think of the big metropolis that we call a place like DFW, SAT, PHX, LAX, or any other big airport. Those places are not friendly places to be anymore and really aren't that inspiring.
We need to do what we can to get the word out to that segment of the population that can afford it and benefit by it, but that is probably spending that extra bit on jetskis, boats, crazy expensive cars, or something similar. Folks are surprised when I tell them some used airplanes don't cost much more than their SUV...

Ryan

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Aerial Photographer with Red Wing Aerial Photography currently based at KRBD and tailwheel CFI.
Websites: Texas Tailwheel Flight Training, DoolittleRaid.com and Lbirds.com.

The horse is prepared against the day of battle: but safety is of the LORD. - Prov. 21:31 - Train, Practice, Trust.

And vote early and often... LOL!

Ryan

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Aerial Photographer with Red Wing Aerial Photography currently based at KRBD and tailwheel CFI.
Websites: Texas Tailwheel Flight Training, DoolittleRaid.com and Lbirds.com.

The horse is prepared against the day of battle: but safety is of the LORD. - Prov. 21:31 - Train, Practice, Trust.

Absolutely Ryan.

Also most people I know (outside aviation) are certain that at airshows aeroplane crash and kill people all the time. After all, that's all their experience of airshows is.

_________________
James K

"Switch on the underwater landing lights"
Emilio Largo, Thunderball.

www.VintageAeroWriter.com

I sure don't see it...flying out of KISM everyday the flight schools are buzzing like gnats. That said we are steady with T-6 flights, I rarely go home from work without a couple logbook entries, even during the "slow" summer season. In traveling with the bombers to over 120 cities a year for the last 7 years almost all airports were busy with some kind of activity. It is still a strong hobby and business tool in my eyes.

jim

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www.spiritof44.com

I think part of the decrease in GA activity, specifically flight training, is also because of the lack of appeal in becoming a commercial pilot. With the decline in the appeal of being a commercial pilot because of the condition of the airlines, there are fewer people that are choosing that career path. I suspect that a large number of people that start flying towards earning their certificates at one point or another think about being a commercial pilot. I went to a fairly well known part 141 school that recently cancelled their flight training program because the number of students coming in to start working towards that career of becoming a commercial pilot has decreased significantly since Sept. 11th. When I was there from 1997-2001 they had to limit the number of students in the program because of resources. There were people that wanted in the program every year that were turned away because they did not have enough planes (they had over 35 at the peak). Just 10 years later and the program is going away because of lack of interest. I do not think it is because of the lack of interest in GA specifically, just that with the decline of interest in being a commercial pilot impacts all of the training that falls in the GA activity.

Just one person's opinion, but I have watched not only the purchase price of warbirds go up, but in particular the running costs. For me with the T-6, then the T-28 it started to wear the shine a little, although I love flying the planes and everything about it. For those of us with moderate means, especially as we age, I began to look for something that was a better fit for me that was fun to fly, affordable, and had the plus of some tie with history and warbirds.

LSA WW1 replicas. While not for everyone, they are a perfect fit for me in my retirement. They are very inexpensive to get and keep, great to fly with other folks, while not original have a tie to history, and are most are LSA eligible (no medical). The WW1 crowd is a fun group, and as diverse as you can imagine with perfect recreations to 7/8 scaled fighters that take less than $10K to make. And everyone gets along and has fun flying together. It is a growing group, with new folks and new airplanes to see every year.

I took the middle of the road and have a built a full size Sopwith Camel using many modern materials, but with original instruments and other pieces. It took about 6 months to build at Airdrome Aeroplanes (www.Airdromeaeroplanes.com) and cost about as much as a good sized SUV.

Again, not for everybody, but it's the most fun flying anywhere per dollar and still with a connection to history.

the liability factor : insurance for private flights for customers / airshow fees & insurance is whittling away at the guys even with the most deep pockets, as well as joe 6 pack with a t-6 or cub. i deal in the collectable end, ....... parts, components etc. if you buy a gauge from me for your toy it is sold to you with no warranty as to safety & operation. it is a collectable for your shelf to enjoy, about as cut & dry of a policy as it gets. publications such as "trade a plane" have seen a significant drop in warbird advertisements in recent years, i noted that opinion on the board some years ago. people increasingly just don't have expendable income, & long before the economic melt down. magazine subscriptions pertaining to antique military aviation are waning. it's the dominoe effect. govt regs don't help either while some are important & some are plain dumb. $$$$$$ is the factor..... it's as blunt as it gets. as to the collectable market..... it's more cost affective to own a piece of a classic warbird than the entire thing.

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tom d. friedman - hey!!! those fokkers were messerschmitts!! * without ammunition, the usaf would be just another flying club!!! * better to have piece of mind than piece of tail!!