mustangdriver wrote:
Garth, I doun't doubt that you are correct about the hardware of the Shuttle, but to retire the Shuttles, and then cancel the replacement program pretty much sets us up for failure in the future.
Ok, second topic. I agree as well. The issue here is that the decisions that got us to where are today were made decades ago.
The shuttle is still very much an experimental vehicle. At the time it was cutting edge, and even today is of an incredible level of technical complexity. With that level of complexity comes both risk and cost.
NASA is something of a schizophrenic organization (on many levels, actually). On one hand, it wants to promote bleeding edge technology and foster the advancement of such, but on the other hand it's tasked with doing more "mundane" things such as ferrying humans into LEO and back in a safe and cost-effective manner.
The two aren't exactly compatible. As shown with both the shuttle, and also with the ostensible shuttle-replacement, the X-33. By all reasonable expectations, the shuttles should have been gone long ago, replaced by a better system for doing what they were designed to do. Yet, because NASA lacked the budget, and the motivation, for multiple human-capable launch systems (a conservatively-designed "Space Taxi" to get people up and down, and also a series of increasingly advanced proofs-of-concept to test out new technologies and capabilities), they were stuck with the shuttle - which was an excellent proof-of-concept, but a lousy space-taxi.
As much as I love the shuttle (I heard about Atlantis' last launch only a few minutes beforehand, made it into the break room in time to see it happen and could recount to my colleagues how I'd also seen - on TV - her first launch back in the mid-1980s), I think perpetuating their existence at this point, given budgetary realities, is a detriment to moving forward. The real problem is in the lack of a path forward. There's some good indications, at least in some areas of follow-on capability, as with what the USAF is doing with the X-37 ... and in movement towards public-private collaboration on future systems.