The mathmatical chances of surviving a tour of ops

[Mossie]

Somebody has obviously got too much time on their hands !

http://www.rafcommands.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5175

This is the bit I like though

An American airman, was told at Briefing to ‘Go in at 30,000 feet and keep out of the flak.”
“If I go in a 20,000 feet, what will happen?’ asked the airman.
“You’ll probably be mentioned in despatches”, answered the officer.
“If I go in at 10,000 feet ?“ he asked.
“In that case you will probably get the Congress Medal”, he was told.
"And if I go in at 5,000 feet?’ he inquired excitedly.
“Don’t be a fool, man”, replied his superior, “you’ll go and bump into the R.A.F. at that height.”

[DB2]

Actually, much of the field of Operations Research, which now governs everything from how traffic signals are timed to how your beer is brewed, originated with studies on how to minimize losses in the RAF Bomber Command and how to gauge the effectivenes of the night raids.

In fact, they actually determined that removing two gun turrets from a Lanc could cut losses dramatically, as the speed of the bomber would increase significantly - and thus decrease the time over target. However, no one would give up their Vickers...

For those with a thirst for learning, there was a fascinating article in the MIT magazine a couple of years ago on the subject:

http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/17724/

[Glyn]

I think I read that the most dangerous occupation in the wartime RAF was torpedo work with Coastal Command.

[Mossie]

I think flying Fairey Battles against the advancing German Army in the Battle for France in 1940, is the one place I would not like to have been. Their losses were enormous. I would like to seen what the statistcs for the Fairey Battle squadrons were ?

So from this site;

http://homepage.ntlworld.com/r_m_g.varl ... vival_over

Of all the guys in Bomber Command, survival rate average 1939-45

40%Survived Unharmed

7% Survived but were wounded

8%Survived but were taken Prisoners of Wa r

38%Killed in Action, or Missing presumed killed

7%Killed in Crashes and Accidents

[Glyn]

From W.R.Chorley's masterly series RAF Bomber Command Losses of the 2nd World War, a total of 217 Battles were lost with 148 on operations, 28 on the ground and 40 to other causes.
Bomber Command was in the UK only. Bomber aircraft serving overseas are not included in the total of 12,330. A further 2,009 were lost at the Operational Training Units (some on actual operations) and 878 on Conversion Units (some on actual operations also).

[Glyn]

Further to the above, Battle losses by squadron in 1940:
12 Sqn 24 operations 1 non-op
88 Sqn 16 operations 1 non-op
103 Sqn 19 operations 2 non-op
142 Sqn 23 operations 6 non-op
150 Sqn 19 operations 1 non-op
207 Sqn 0 operations 1 non-op
218 Sqn 13 operations 3 non-op
226 Sqn 11 operations 1 non-op
300 Sqn 1 operations 1 non-op
301 Sqn 1 operations 1 non-op

In 1939 23 Battles were lost, 8 on ops and 15 in non-ops.

[fritzthefox]

I find the application of Operational Research ironic. What began in WWII as a useful method of determining optimum strategies eventually evolved into the widely deplored body counts and celebration of data over common sense that produced such poor results in Vietnam.

This does not seem to have deterred the mathematicians very much, who can now add their statistical modeling of the stock market to their growing list of spectacular failures.

I sometimes think the only math that should be allowed in schools are word problems, with the occasional Zen koan snuck in to keep everyone humble in the face of a universe that doesn't care how many crystal balls or calculators you own.