Warbird Information Exchange

James,

I meant no disrespect to our Austrialian and New Zealand friends. Quite the opposite.

My intent was that no matter the circumstances of a capitulation of/in the British Isles; that the Austrialians and New Zealanders would have fought on and remained our Allies.

As for a possible invasion of Austrialia. I take your point. But; point out that the Japanese had substantial forces in China to counter a possible Russian invasion. Under the original senario the Russians would have most probably brought home thier Siberian Divisions.

So; who knows what the Japanese would have done with thier own surplus Divisions. Most likely China. But; who knows.

Having "Aircraft Carrier Austrialia" would have been a more serious threat than anything else I can think of. What if the Japanese had said " the heck with malarial PNG, lets take our troops there to Austrailia".

Of course this pre-supposes that the Phillipeans fell.

Joe

I'm certainly no scholar, but...

What about the Amerika Bomber program by the Reichsluftfahrtministerium to develop long range bombers capable of striking the US mainland?

With England part of the Third Reich, the rest of Europe would have fallen but probably at later dates than actual due to the efforts expended to gain control of England.

So while the Allies work to gain a foothold to wage war from formerly rear area bases, the Luftwaffe is able to concentrate on the Amerika project to ultimately take the fight to US soil. But would they need to? Would the US have ever been in danger of invasion by the Third Reich? Not sure on that one. We would have still been gearing up for the war and still have developed new technologies from refugee scientiests from the UK and Germany. Given the way the country came together, imagine the vigor of defending US soil from an invader, something we had not experienced in 100 years at that point.

Adding another "what if" to the equation, what if Hitler marched up to Russian and stopped? This would give him the ability to defend Europe and build greater manufactuering capabilities and build ups to expand the empire at a later date.

Crikey ... I thought this thread was dead and buried in 2005!

There can be no consideration that Hitler would have stopped at the Russian border. One of the main driving forces behind his European expansion was to regain the land surrendered by the so-called "November criminals", who signed the Treaty of Versailles and took from Germany all the land that the German soldiers conquered in 1914-1918. The continued existence of Russia as anything but a vassal state was unacceptable to him. The fact that Hitler dragged the rail car in Compiegne Forest to the exact position it was in on 11 November 1918 to force the French to sign the 1940 surrender document in it, shows his feelings toward the treaty, and the way WWI ended for Germany. Russia was unfinished business and had to be dealt with. To not do so would have been to betray his comrades who fell in the name of Germany.

With regard to Australia. We wouldn't have surrendered, but would have been impotent given that P-40s and Spits wouldn't have been available to us. Ultimately, I believe a phoney war would have developed with Australia and Japan staring at each other across the Torres Strait. With Japan occupying Seven-mile, they would easily have been able to keep Darwin, Townsville and Iron Range suppressed.

It is an interesting point that Japan may never have intended to invade Australia. The original "Greater South-east Asia Co-prosperity Sphere" did include the north of Australia. If they didn't intend to invade, it means they would have been settling for less than they set out to get. There is no sign that they were prepared to do this in any other theatre, so why would they stop for Australia?

Walrus

_________________
One crowded hour of glorious life
Is worth an age without a name

Japan had special Australian curremcy made for plans..... so invasion was on the boards..

But they would of had a hell of a time to conquer it i bet.

Unless the Japanese had a good logistic network and could stop any attacks from US it would of supplied its far flung corners of the NEW EMPIRE...

Instead of Aussie say "Guday mate" it would be something trivial in Japanese culture...

Japanese would of held Australia to ransom with nuclear weapons ----------------- which it denotated one device for tests...in North Korea in mid 1945.... which has slipped most people minds...

I thought it had died too!

Hi Walrus. My understanding of the intent not to invade Australia is based on the AWM galleries, and recent(ish) readings of various official accounts and summaries.

What the Japanese told, say, their Asian neighbours wasn't necessarily their real intent, anymore than they would broadcast what the could do. Certainly various Japanese army and navy leaders believed they should and could invade, but they weren't the policy leaders as I understand it. I agree an offshore stalemate might have happened (with the caveat stalemates were rare in W.W.II) but I can't see such happening on mainland Australia, however much the Southern states don't care for the Northern ones!

Can you give a ref for the inclusion of Northern Aus?

Cheers

_________________
James K

"Switch on the underwater landing lights"
Emilio Largo, Thunderball.

www.VintageAeroWriter.com

James,

I have read it in several books that are now back in the libraries from which I took them, but here's an on-line reference from UCLA.

http://www.international.ucla.edu/eas/r ... geacps.htm

It quotes a draft plan for the sphere, which included three spheres, being:

The Inner Sphere- the vital sphere for the empire-includes Japan, Manchuria, North China, the lower Yangtze Area and the Russian Maritime area.

The Smaller Co-Prosperity Sphere- the smaller self-supplying sphere of East Asia-includes the inner sphere plus Eastern Siberia, China, Indo-China, and the South Sea.

The Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere- the larger self-supplying sphere of East Asia-includes the smaller co-prosperity sphere, plus Australia, India, and island groups in the Pacific....

For the present, the smaller co-prosperity sphere shall be the zone in which the construction of East Asia and the stabilization of national defense are to be aimed at. After their completion there shall be a gradual expansion toward the construction of the Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere

Walrus

_________________
One crowded hour of glorious life
Is worth an age without a name

Thanks Walrus, pretty interesting. I'd not seen it.

Chilling, and unrealistic stuff. The Japanese leadership were really in a world of their own, it seems. Pity they cause so much destruction while showing they didn't have a viable idea.

A great case study also in why not to believe your own PR and fail to understand your opponents.

I'm wondering if the AWM stuff related to later in the war, or based on other data, or was just wrong?

Cheers

_________________
James K

"Switch on the underwater landing lights"
Emilio Largo, Thunderball.

www.VintageAeroWriter.com

James,

It probably related to later in the war. This draft document was written in January 1942 when everything was going well for Japan. Coral Sea was May 1942 and Midway was June 1942. After that they probably realised they no longer had the ability to invade Australia because they'd failed to take the US Pacific Fleet out of the equation.

Having said that, why would they continue to press so hard to take Port Moresby if they had given up on Australia? I suspect it wasn't until their defeat in Papua that they changed their minds for good. From that time until the end of the war they were in damage control mode and didn't have the ability to invade anyone.

Walrus

_________________
One crowded hour of glorious life
Is worth an age without a name

Yes, seems reasonable. I also get the feeling the IJN weren't too good at working with the Japanese army, and different agendas could mean pointless pressing on. Likewise loss of face (in command and management, as well as elsewhere) was more 'important' at times than sound strategic plans.

How did we get here in a thread about 'what if' and Britain? Shouldn't we be in the other 'what if' thread?

_________________
James K

"Switch on the underwater landing lights"
Emilio Largo, Thunderball.

www.VintageAeroWriter.com

In case anyone is interested...
http://www.codemasters.com/turningpoint/

_________________
Keep Em' Flying,
Christopher Soltis
Dedicated to the preservation and education of The Sikorsky Memorial Airport

CASC Blog Page: http://ctair-space.blogspot.com/
Warbird Wear: https://www.redbubble.com/people/warbirdwear/shop

Chicks Dig Warbirds.......right?

Okay Scott, I'll give it a try at this scenario.

1939-1940 Britain Fights a valiant fight.

August 1941 Britain under the THREAT of a SERIOUS Nazi invasion (building up of Sealion going to the next stage), CAPITULATES after their cities are laid waste by continuous Carpet bombing. Coventryesque destruction throughout country in most major industrial cities. British Military forces surrender in Stratford (which has been spared). Scotland refuses English surrender and makes a Norwayesque stand refusing any foreign occupier. Guerrilla war ensues in the harsh conditions of the Highlands. Nazis occupiers in England stand at Hadrian Wall and do search and destroy missions throughout Scotland looking for Guerrilla's. Ireland remains Neutral and Nazis recognize neutrality.

Royal Family, Top Jet Scientists, Codebreakers, Gold bullion, remaining British Fleet all escape to Canada PRIOR to Britain's Capitulation. Set-up government in exile in Ottawa. Churchill states in the Ottawa Parliament "Though this part of the battle is over and England has fallen, the fight is still on! We shall never give up, NEVER, not until ALL Men are Free from this Tyranny!" US joins the fight in September 1941 against the Nazis.

Commonwealth nations become free nations from British rule in exchange for Allied allegiance in the alliance.

Fall 1941-Spring 1943 British-in-exile government sets-up spy network (aka French underground) throughout occupied Britain, ramps up in conjunction with Canadian government production in Canada of Spitfire piston fighters & Meteor Jet fighters, Super Stirling bombers, Radar, Atomic weapons continue development in Tenn, etc..

U.S attacked on December 7th 1941 by Japanese at Pearl Harbor. Carrier Lexington sunk in the Harbor. Carriers Saratoga and Enterprise are in the Atlantic and avoid Japanese wrath. 3 months after declaring war on Germany, The U.S. declares war on Japan.

U.S. Sub warfare becomes very prevalent in the Atlantic at a much higher level, Interceptor bases are created in Maine, Nova Scotia, Greenland, Bermuda creating a defensive North American ring. Naval pickets created. Hercules Flying boats begin delivering Lend-lease aid to Russia via the treacherous Polar fly-over route.

1942-1943 South America and Mexico remain Neutral and lean ever more toward the Nazi Cause with their continued success vs. Soviet Union.

1943 Summer-->Canada begins Massive build-up of Industry in Quebec City and Montreal making them the "Pittsburghs of the North". FORTRESS NOVA SCOTIA becomes the stockpile and Training area for some 4 million soldiers for the eventual D-Day invasion planned for Spring of 1945.

To be continued......

After reading through the thread I feel Glenn's post really makes the most sense so far...

Canada was already ramped up for production of both aircraft and ships (Hurricanes/Corvettes and others), main training bases for all forces well under construction...including the hangar that our museum is now in.

The west coast while still quite open in 1940 was already starting to wake up to the Japanese threat.

Supplying Russia along the the "Alcan Highway" would have been a given, with only a short sea trip to Siberia. The aircraft would still have taken this route as many thousands did in reality.

The questions would have been...

1) With Germany in control of the middle east and supplying oil and other products to Japan would there very have been a Pearl Harbour?

I doubt it, there would have been no need.

2) Without Pearl Harbour would the USA have entered the conflict?

From my knowledge of history...unlikely. The US had a very strong isolationist movement, the Bundt was also quite strong. With no immediate threat or even foreseen threat would the USA have risked all???? Tough one to figure out.

The US at this point would have become the industrial centre more than anything. It's ability to supply would have become a critical factor and an important one.

The Commonwealth including Canada would have no doubt fought on for King and Country but to what effect..especially initially.

War products would have reached Oz, NZ and South Africa by sea, knowing our Southern brothers they would have blocked the Japanese/German expansion.

Canada would have become a supply route and training centre, as it did, but feeding an eastern front war (we are used to the cold) with the Russians.

The push into Europe would have come from the East, no need for a amphibous invasion when overland is easier to manage and supply.

So with the Commonwealth and the Russians fighting the War in Europe, Australians and New Zealanders holding back the Japanese, America as the Industrial centre of the "Free" world, but not active as a combat force (they had no political reason) how would the game have changed.

Oh yes....I am not discrediting the USA in anyway, I know many thousands of Americans would have come to Canada (as they did before the US entered the War) to fight for freedom. But I could see the politics of the day keeping the USA neutral without Pearl Harbour to bring the politicians in.

But where would things have gone from here?????

What an interesting and scary thread

Tom H

_________________
Alberta Aviation Museum
Edmonton Aviation Heritage Society

Tom,

I believe that Pearl Harbour would still have happened, but perhaps with a different outcome. If you follow the link I posted to James above, you will see that Japan's intents in the Pacific were to control and 'educate' the people in the ways of Japan and the Emperor. They had no chance whilst the US Pacific Fleet was in operation, a knock-out blow was still a good option for Japan.

On the question of Europe, I believe the war would have reached a stalemate for quite some years. Hitler would have wanted no war with Canada and the USA, so he could turn on Russia. Naturally, there would have been no peace coming, but what ability did the USA and Canada have to take the fight back to Germany? Certainly not aircraft. The Luftwaffe would have been keeping a good watch over the North Atlantic with their long-range B-17s and Sunderlands, with which they could also have hit any air bases the Allies tried to set up in Greenland or Iceland.

So, the war in Europe would have turned into a sea battle for the Atlantic. That would have caused the US Navy to have to split its fleet between the Atlantic and the Pacific.

From which would the US feel most threatened?

Walrus

_________________
One crowded hour of glorious life
Is worth an age without a name

I also think Tom H. and Walrus make valid points.

Tom H., thanks for reminding me about the ALCAN. ALCAN highway would have been very important to Lend-Lease (probably more so than flyover above the Polar ice cap) if N. Atlantic shut to U-boats. But if the Soviets had to rely on that route to stem the Nazi push to the Urals (btw I don't think they would have gone any further with their Lebensraum mentality). They would have stopped. That ALCAN plus the Trans-Siberian route is almost 3/4 around the earth! Takes a really long time.

Like Walrus, I do think that Pearl Harbor would still have happened. Japan was being "limited" in their expansionist goals by America economically. Other than oil produced in what is Indonesia, America & the Commonwealth were still limiting other raw materials to Japan's economy like Copper, Tin, Rubber, etc because of the Rape of Nanking and other atrocities in China. Japan believed they had thrown off Russia's imperialist threat to Manchuria and Korea (Nichi-Ro Sensô) in 1904-1905 in the Japan-Russo War. But it would have and was replaced with a new threat by U.S and the Commonwealth in the Pacific.

While America FIRST was prevalent with some prominent citizens of the US. Most notably Charles Lindbergh, future president Gerald Ford, Lillian Gish, Walt Disney, Sinclair Lewis, and Frank Lloyd Wright. And Henry Ford admired Nazi Germany's "economic progress" in the 1930's . I do not think that there would have been such a split in the US if Germany had made England bow to them in 1940 by literally "Burning them out". In fact most American's were getting their news from Edward R. Murrow's radio broadcasts about the death & destruction in Europe (most notably London). FDR's America would have fought against Germany after Churchill's plea.

Scott, do you think that Britain's aircraft production could have somehow been "transplanted" quickly enmasse to Canada if England fell. While Canada was producing some planes like the Hurricane and Lancaster, could they have also produced Spitfires, Stirling's (Super? Trancontinental Range), Sutherland's, Merlin engines and eventually Meteors at a level to have full effect. Maybe some of our Canadian Wixers familiar with early war production could answer that one? I honestly don't know.

When Ed Murrow returned to the U.S. in 1941, his first trip back in three years, CBS hosted a dinner in his honor on December 2 at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel. While attending, Murrow received a welcome-back telegram that read:

“ You burned the city of London in our houses and we felt the flames. . . You laid the dead of London at our doors and we knew that the dead were our dead. . . were mankind's dead without rhetoric, without dramatics, without more emotion than needed be. . . you have destroyed the superstition that what is done beyond 3,000 miles of water is not really done at all. ” President Franklin Delano Roosevelt

FDR America would have fought.

Good night, and good luck!