Prospect for last warbird show ever(if it ever happened)

[k5083]

Kevin, there are different interpretations on why the Simon-Ehrlich wager came out the way it did, as I'm sure you know.

http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/01/julian ... y-in-2013/

It could be that we will fail to find substitutes for oil as fast as the supply diminishes and it will become very precious, as you say. That would be the only important commodity that ever happened to, but it can't be ruled out. What is more likely, following the example of other commodities, is that substitutes will be found; demand will go down more or less in parallel with supply, though it may lag (or then again it may lead) a bit; and the little oil that is left will be adequate for the few truly (?) non-substitutable uses like flying P-51s (although how those uses will support the necessary production and refining infrastructure is a very valid concern).

August

[bdk]

The supply of oil is controlled by governments. There has never been a shortage. I remember 30 years ago when there was only a 10 year supply remaining.

[Cherrybomber13]

Side line on this one, What about for the 75th anniversary of WW2, in DC, en-mass flyover of a B-29, 2 B-24's , whole mess of 17's and 25's and a sea of Mustangs, Thunderbolts, Corsairs etc straight over the Capitol, Washington Monument, WW2 Memorial and Lincoln Memorial to Honor the Greatest Generation? Maybe even pull out a sea of Jeeps and Shermans for a parade down Constitution Ave. It will never happen and I know the airspace is beyond restricted but man what a show it would be.

[K5DH]

I'm not usually the type to spout "doomsday rhetoric", but I do worry that AvGas will eventually become so hard to get that sport flying of all types will just about come to an end. The refining companies don't make a lot of money selling AvGas, and very few of them are still making it. There is a far greater demand for other fuel products so they tend to use their refineries to make those other products. "Buffalo Joe" McBryan once said that a lack of AvGas would ground his fleet of piston-powered aircraft long before he could ever wear them out. AvGas shortages in Canada a couple of years ago nearly put Buffalo out of business.

[bombadier29]

Its not going to be the lack of avgas that grounds warbirds. Somebody will always be willing to pay the price of brewing up a batch of it for their own use. Its not going to be the lack of insurance, somebody will always pay a ridicules amount of money to self insure.

Someday it is going to be the FAA that grounds them. No doubt it will be after the battle but we will still loose the war. I think all it will take is a couple more crashes of jet warbirds, or another Reno style crash that kills some in the crowd or a crash involving a death of passenger in one of the LHFE airplanes. A warbird bomber with a lot of passenger deaths would just about drive a nail into the coffin.

I hope it never happens!

[Cherrybomber13]

I would be willing to bet you there are more classic car accidents and deaths each year than warbird related events. Just a thought to spur the conversation.

[shrike]

I would be willing to bet you there are more classic car accidents and deaths each year than warbird related events. Just a thought to spur the conversation.

In the US there were 979 aviation related fatalities in 2011*
In the US in 2009 ** there were 33,900 automotive/vehicular deaths***, or roughly 93 per day.






* per NTSB Statistical report
** per Census Abstract (the latest numbers I could find without taking too long to dig)
*** Deaths resulting within 30 days of the accident

[bombadier29]

I would be willing to bet you there are more classic car accidents and deaths each year than warbird related events. Just a thought to spur the conversation.

Of course there are. Most years you can count deaths from warbird related accidents on one hand. More people die of overdoses in Portland on a daily basis. I'm sure more people get killed walking across a parking lot. It doesn't matter because those are stupid arguments and have nothing to do with this subject. The simple fact is that there is a movement within the FAA and government to end warbird flying (not to mention general aviation). Its been going on for a long time and just keeps coming up in different disguises. It's kind of quite now but it will be back again. This time last year some Ohio Congressman was trying to shut down the operation of loaned airplanes from the DOD. You don't think he came up with that idea all by himself do you? Seems strange that it happened not long after the CAF/USAF fight over the P-82 and the Collings Foundation/USAF/FAA disagreement about F-100 flying and F-105 acquisition, doesn't it?

Classic cars don't have a government body that is charged with oversight and protection of them, but spends a lot of their resources trying to limit or end their operation. Aviation does!

[Wildchild]

Is there a chance that our piston powered planes could be converted to fly on propane?

Long shot but what the hell....

[k5083]

I would be willing to bet you there are more classic car accidents and deaths each year than warbird related events. Just a thought to spur the conversation.

In the US there were 979 aviation related fatalities in 2011*
In the US in 2009 ** there were 33,900 automotive/vehicular deaths***, or roughly 93 per day.






* per NTSB Statistical report
** per Census Abstract (the latest numbers I could find without taking too long to dig)
*** Deaths resulting within 30 days of the accident

But the relevant figures are not total, they are per hour or per mile, or somehow corrected for activity levels.

The stats are that, more or less, commercial flying is slightly safer than driving a car. General aviation flying is about as dangerous as riding a motorcycle. Warbird flying is more risky than anything you do on the road. You have to join the reality-based community if you are going to try to make arguments that sway people.

August

[phil65]

What’s why I go to Airshows, because you never know the last one will be.

Boston Strong

[Boeing666]

The day that happens. I will attend each show day of that - whereever that is in the world. Once that is over, I sell my camera equipment because I will be done with aviation photography. There is no military to shoot anymore and I don't see military at airshows coming back at least in the next 4 years. Commercial aviation used to be enjoyable to shoot - back when you had more DC-8s, DC-10s, L1011s, piston engine props, 707s, 727s and 747s and a ton of airlines and good liveries - now everything in commercial is down to twin engine everything, maybe 6 airlines left in the US, only about that much left in South America and only a handful of European and Asian companies that come to the US - I get bored at my home airport Orlando with the constant next gen 737s and A320s mainly of Southwest and a couple other US carriers - handful of foreign carriers, so a good warbird airshow is always a nice change of pace. By the time they have the last warbird airshow, we will be down to 1 or 2 airlines in the US and all 747s and anything else with 2 engines or more will be retired - so yeah, nothing else worth taking pictures of after that.

[Boeing666]

Is there a chance that our piston powered planes could be converted to fly on propane?

Long shot but what the heck....

Are you this guy?

[Wildchild]

Is there a chance that our piston powered planes could be converted to fly on propane?

Long shot but what the heck....

Are you this guy?

[img]http://www.algodoo.com/algobox/upload/image/42978_Hank_Hill.png[/im]

No not gas propane, liquid propane like in this: