Warbird Information Exchange

I was looking at Provenance's web site and see that their FG-1D is for sale? (Bureau #92106) I thought this was going to be part of their "collection"?
http://www.provenancefightersales.com/sale.htm

On their site, it says "Price on Request", but on Trade-A-Plane, it says $4,000,000!!!

http://www.trade-a-plane.com/unprotected/specs/51131.html

I wish I had 4 mil!!!

That restoration is meticulous to say the least. However I have to wonder about the price because 4 million seems a little steep, even for a Corsair. Is Provenance trying to drive the market up? It seems that all of their warbirds are priced at the higher end of the spectrum, even the common ones. Please enlighten me.


-WC

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real airplanes have round engines

Exactly what I was thinking!

Provenance's recent "advertisement edition" of Warbirds International (March/April 2007) featured no less than three major articles specifically covering the fighters they have for sale (P-51, Corsair & Seafire). In it, they specifically stated that "We have seen these machines increasing in value as much as 20% per year, so they are not only extremely historic aircraft, but also excellent investments. We have been carefully charting values and feel fully confident in predicting values of WWII fighter aircraft will double over the next five years".

Now admittedly, I've been following the sales of some of these aircraft types myself over the last 25 years and I can't specifically say that I've seen a solid 20% per year growth, so this is more likely a projection of how they would like to affect the market rather than a pre-existing fact. That said though, Provenance has definitely pulled off some amazing sales in the little time that they've been at it. They are most definitely driving the market up single-handedly.

You can't knock them for making it happen though. If they can get $4M for a $2M aircraft on a four or five year turn-around then more power to them I say! If they can pull that off consistently, then they'll certainly be taking the rest of the warbird market to school.

I will say this. If they continue to push the market exponentially higher, they are going to kick off the burgeoning "new-production" warbird market in a big way. A large fraction of folks would be just as happy hot-rodding around in a brand new zero-time P-51 airframe for around $2M versus paying double that for an identical airframe with a historic data plate and a paper trail attached to it. There will always be that fraction of the market that will pay whatever it takes to own the original planes, but most folks (even multi-millionaires) know what a dollar is worth, and they are only going to be taken so far up that path for the want of a historic paper trail IMO.

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Rob Mears
'Surviving Corsairs' Historian
robcmears@yahoo.com
http://www.robmears.com

Couldn't agree more.

-WC

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real airplanes have round engines

Indeed Rob - but what about the airframe that really is the genuine article and not just a something with a historic 'dataplate' attached to it - how does that fit in to the equation? Will it become so valuable that it becomes too risky to fly?

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Warbird Colour - Authentic historic aircraft finishes http://www.warbirdcolour.co.uk

I think those will definitely be the ones that still command top dollar as the market continues to climb. The concept of being "too risky to fly" will most likely come as a judgement call made by individual owners on a plane-by-plane basis rather than some proverbial wall that the market smacks into at some point in the future. We've already seen numerous collections (i.e. Kalamazoo Air Zoo, War Eagles Air Museum, Champlin Fighter Museum, etc) become permanently grounded as the owners slow down, retire, or pass away. That process in itself is sure to gobble up a sizable amount of airworthy, or potentially airworthy airframes as time marches on. Accidents will claim others, and the FAA's requirements for airworthiness paired with general maintenance will continue to chip away at whatever original material still lingers on the remaining flying examples. So many of the airworthy warbirds out there have been built & rebuilt, reskinned, reengined, had sheet metal, fabric, and systems replaced, etc... you might have a tougher time than you think finding one that you can lay your hand on and truly touch the same material where "ace pilot X" actually rested his hand, etc.

This is after all the information age, and its a lot easier than it was twenty years ago to ask questions and find answers about the true provenance of a given airframe. Such things used to be somewhat of a non-issue, but as times change, information and higher awareness among the common enthusiasts has become the new status quo. With the illusion of true originality rapidly being exposed for what it is, the line between what is authentic and what is reproduction is growing increasingly more blurred. There's no doubt we've all seen it emerge and grow into a major hot button issue over the last few years as the community clammers to figure out how to perceive such things. It's really an amazing phenomenon IMO.

A plane with some historic lineage and a paper trail that harkens back to an actual factory serial number will always be worth more than a pure reproduction, but I don't think anyone flying twenty years from now will be putting too much if any weight on their claim to originality. 90% of those airframes will only be a distant ghost of the aircraft that actually rolled off the factory line during WWII.

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Rob Mears
'Surviving Corsairs' Historian
robcmears@yahoo.com
http://www.robmears.com

They are in the business of selling aeroplanes, aren't they?

If somebody buys it for $4M, than that is what it is worth. If nobody buys it at that price, than it isn't. I don't understand this idea of "pushing the market exponentially higher." How exactly does Provenance have the power to do that? I'm very curious!

They have the power to do that because they're selling a product which is incredibly short in supply, yet high in demand. They can therefore hypothetically set the product's value wherever they deem fit. By setting the value at their own number, they create precedence and thus dictate where the market should be, especially since they have a number of products for sale all from the same limited supply.

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real airplanes have round engines

So why be critical of them for that? Are you suggesting that their asking price is "unfair"? If Courtesy were selling one at the same price would that be OK?

BDK is saying exactly what I was just about to pop up on here. I once piped up, "why would Stephen Grey sell the Tomahawk P-40 ?" and was quickly told "it's a business". Everything is for sale, for the right price, even Glacier Girl.

John

There is absolutely nothing wrong with that sort of practice. That is capitalism at its best and more power to them if they are able to pull it off. The unfortunate thing is that the high prices will put the products out of the reach of the many, and make them available to a fewer number of people than the few who can afford them now.

This is in no way intended to be a Courtesy vs. Provenance debate. The issue is just more apparent because Provenance is a relatively new company who is going up against the already-established Courtesy who has a history of being a reputable aircraft dealer. As well, Courtesy's prices have usually been competitive with the market, instead of trying to drive it (either up or down).

-WC

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real airplanes have round engines

It is capitalism. Something is worth what people pay. People sometimes put a lot more into these aircraft than what the are worth and wanting to get top dollar for something makes sense. It doesn't always workout that they get what they put into it.


I think that the meager million four that they were going for a couple of years ago was out of the range of most. It is a rich person's hobby, it has been for about 20 years and it will get more and more so due to the costs of owning, maintaining and insuring the aircraft. Frankly we should be happy that over the years the rich have become involved in warbirds because it has brought many airframes to the air because of the fact that it could potentially be an investment. Many warbird owners have gotten into warbirds specifically because of the investment aspect, and then fallen in love with them, eventually spending much more restoring a rare aircraft that they may never get their money out of in their lifetime, ex "How Bout That," "Apache Princess," and many others.

Ryan

In a conversation with the guys at Provenance, about warbird valuations, they told me something that I think makes a lot of sense. I asked if they really thought a Corsair was worth 2 Million (at the time) and the quote was:

"I've sold vintage Ferraris for multi-millions, and as far as I know they never won any wars with them."

That pretty much sums it up.

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Eric

"I spent most of my money on alcohol, women and skyraiders....and the rest of it I just wasted."