Earhart In The News

[ffuries]

....And this time it isn't TIGHAR......

https://news.yahoo.com/former-us-air-fo ... 18108.html

Last edited by ffuries on Sun Jan 28, 2024 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[quemerford]

I don't have to squint much to make that look like an F-86. I do hope that it's finally Amelia and Fred, but either way I hope TIGHAR is not involved in any way.

But for sure if they are involved, they will twist the narrative to agree with everything they already said. If they are not involved they will try their utmost to claim they had a key (fictitious) part in the discovery or will rubbish everything that's uncovered.

Cue another holiday in the Pacific either way.

[ffuries]

I don't have to squint much to make that look like an F-86. I do hope that it's finally Amelia and Fred, but either way I hope TIGHAR is not involved in any way.

But for sure if they are involved, they will twist the narrative to agree with everything they already said. If they are not involved they will try their utmost to claim they had a key (fictitious) part in the discovery or will rubbish everything that's uncovered.

Cue another holiday in the Pacific either way.

Guess good ole Richard Gillespie will have to start his fundraising again.

[JohnB]

For years TIGHAR basically said the "crashed and sank" theory was pretty much impossible.... because of the alleged radio transmissions after the Lockheed's fuel was exhausted.
(As a point if common sense...how can you rule out a water landing when the flight was what, 95% over water?).

Have they ever stepped back from that?
Have they ever "proved" the school girl's radio allegations?

They have stepped back from the magic patch...
Bones (wrong gender)
Shoe pieces (wrong size)
Debris found on island (ignoring significant post -1937 habitation).
If I'm wrong on any of these, please feel free to correct me.

Here is an old thread on the topic.

viewtopic.php?f=16&t=66125

[PinecastleAAF]

I watched an interview with Dr. Ballard recently that was recorded last summer and he seemed VERY confident the Electra would be found in the general area around Howland this year. In fact he seemed so confident it was as if he already knew it was there. So this is interesting.

[JohnB]

I watched an interview with Dr. Ballard recently that was recorded last summer and he seemed VERY confident the Electra would be found in the general area around Howland this year. In fact he seemed so confident it was as if he already knew it was there. So this is interesting.

Since this group is relatively new, I wonder if they didn't consult Ballard sometime?

After all, he's the "godfather" of underwater searches, I could see them going to him with their plans to get his take on them.
It I was doing something like that, I'd certainly ask his advice.

[marine air]

The headlines will state "Tony's TIGHAR tale romanced by Romeo."

[JohnH]

I am sure she simply crashed into the water, as was stated in this thread " 95 percent of the flight was over water." But like JFK being killed by a ex marine sharpshooter who was a total loser , or Flight 800 or 911 the simple facts are just too simple . So they have to be twisted into a massive conspiracy of kidnappings, island crash landings, executed by the Japanese , Us Govt cover ups , etc. Absurd.

[JohnB]

...the simple facts are just too simple .

To paraphrase Freud...sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

[Dan Jones]

The part of the TIGHAR theory that always made me roll my eyes (and I hope you’re reading this, Ric) was “when they couldn’t find Howland they instead headed for Gardner Island (Nikumaroro) because they knew it lay (direction x)…”. And that’s fine, and I have every confidence that Noonan could have done that and found it. BUT, if that were me and I’d have decided on that plan of action, I then would have continuously been broadcasting that plan in the blind on whatever frequencies she was trying to contact Itasca on, not suddenly going quiet for the next two hours while looking for another island. I’d have been broadcasting that continuously until somebody answered.

For my money they’re within a hundred miles of Howland and she had let down to around 1000’ at some point either to get under some enroute clouds or anticipating Howland to be in her windshield on Noonan’s eta. When it didn’t show up on time she was reluctant to climb back up to altitude where they could see because she was sweating their remaining fuel. Then they blew a tank, lost one or possibly both engines, and before she could get that sorted out or a radio message off saying they were ditching they were in the water where she blew the landing and the airplane sank with both of them in it.

Though famous, Earhart wasn’t much of a pilot, and she was in way over her head on a trip like this. And at that point in the trip she would have been exhausted, not just from the last twenty-four hours but from the last month. Jackie Cochran should have done the flight. The airplane would now be in the Smithsonian.

[Mark Sampson]

It only makes sense that they ditched. I think the best description/analysis was by Horace Brock, in his memoir "Flying the Oceans". Brock was a Pan Am Clipper navigator and pilot, knew Fred Noonan, and was in Manila when Earhart and Noonan disappeared. He was certain (and who could know better?) that they got lost and ran out of fuel. I loaned out my copy of that fine book and will never see it again, so these are paraphrases.
"The navigation (mathematics) was not so difficult, but there was just one problem; You could never make a mistake."
And something like-
"The shadow of every cloud looked like an island."
Perhaps someone else here has a copy of that book and can provide the correct quotes... but there you have the sense of it.
I hope that someone does find the wreckage- and finally complete the tragic story.

[JohnB]

The leader of the expedition told a media outlet...

" 'We think it could be her plane," Romeo told local outlet The Post and Courier.

"[But] I’m not saying we definitely found her.' ".

A welcome change from the blustery arrogance of the other group and its leader who always came across more interested in generating headlines than answers.

[Dan Jones]

So if it is really Earhart’s and Noonan’s airplane, raise it and restore it, right? Imagine the crowd that would draw at Oshkosh!

[marine air]

One of the owners of the Falcon 900 I fly wants to take it to Australia from Tennessee someday. Just looking at that ( I've never done a flight like that or know anyone) I started asking guys that had flown C-141's, C-130s and the airlines about their experiences. With jets, you would go north to Alaska, Japan, etc and work your way down. The guys that flew the C-97s and C-124's said they did a route that is much lower in altitude, different winds, etc. So they did a route similar to what Earhart chose. Having a Foreflight subscription, I looked at it on the maps and the return trip, if the owners wanted to do it, would over fly much of Earhart's route including Howland Island.
Until you look at it on the aeronautical maps and think about if you were flying it, it's hard to believe the immense expanse of ocean and almost no islands, Many of them today don't have runways. Most of the runways today were built in WW II and didn't exist in her era. Its about 4,500 miles from Australia to Hawaii which is another 2,ooo plus miles to the U.S. mainland.
Even now it looks challenging if it were to be done in a Beech JRB-3 or Grumman HU-16 (piston types) . Earhart only had two engines and no seaplane capability. There's a reason the military and airlines were using flying boats at that time. Also, looking at thousands of miles of 99% water, there would have been storms frequently and that alone would've discouraged a sensible person.
Paul Mantz was her technical advisor and he was well compensated. He was a well known movie stunt pilot. Fred Noonan was a WW I ship navigator and had survived ships being torpedoed and sunk during the war. Was he the best choice for this aeronautical stunt? It's possible Mantz was cashing his paychecks and never thought she would actually do it or would crash the airplane again and it would take her a few attempts and she might lose interest or run out of money.
My theory is she got hopelessly off course, ( the very weak radio calls at sea suggest this) ran out of fuel and then tried to make a dead stick ditching on the high seas. They may have even had a stall-spin, trying to attempt this. I don't think they survived contact with the water and the airplane sank in very deep water. Like Howard Hughes her intellect, enthusiasm, and finances far exceeded her actual skill , experience and judgement.

[quemerford]

We seem to be going over very old ground for some reason. The only news here is that *something* has been discovered. We may finally discover what happened to Fred & Amelia but beyond that I don't really understand the need to re-discuss what may or may not have happened, bearing in mind we've discussed those same unknowns for decades already.

Let's hope it is what we hope it is.