Pearl Harbor "what if" scenarios

[Nathan]

A pretty interesting topic here I think that tends to bring up some good detail and discussion. "What if" Pearl Harbor: had the sinking of a Japanese midget sub from the USS Ward and PBY had been given directly to high command faster? If the Japanese aircraft that had been picked up on radar was not mistaken for the incoming B-17 flight from California? Or Washington was able to send out a message of the Japanese impending war to Kimmel and Short?

Regarding the airforce on Oahu...many of these pilots where high timed pilots with lots of experiance flying the P-36 and P-40. Not all aircraft would have been ready but I would think at lest a good portion of them would have been able to get ready and in the air to meet the Japanese. The rest could have been dispersed around the airfields rather then the sitting ducks being lined up close together. Those few that did get airborne gave a good account. But one has to take into account the Japanese arrived over Oahu with no air opposition so that caused lax I think in fighter protection helping the success in our few pilots in combat. It is hard to ponder what if when you factor in several things. At lest fewer of our fighters would have been destroyed on the ground.

Also perhaps PBY in joint with USAAC B-18's, O-47's, etc would have been sent out to look for the Japanese fleet.

[John Dupre]

You are asking a lot to expect the Navy and Air Corps to begin joint operations within a few days prior of PH based on orders from Washington. Then there is the disparity in aircraft ranges and crew training. The PBY crews could tell the difference between types of ships but I doubt any of the Air Corps types could have.

As for warnings getting out earlier and faster preparation by the US forces think about this, double Japanese losses and halve American ones and what do you get? 60 Japanese aircraft lost and 1 American BB total loss and 2 BBs sunk and salvaged later, 1500 personnel lost and what only 150 planes destroyed. Still a pretty lopsided Japanese victory. Then there are the intangibles maybe Nevada gets outside the harbor only to be torpedoed in deep water for a total loss. Maybe the Japanese, realizing they have not had as great a surprise as they wanted decide to make up for that by continuing to attack and a third wave avoids the thoroughly alerted vessels in order to attack the fixed installations like dry docks, shops, and the tank farm. Maybe a recon aircraft supporting additional attacks finds the Enterprise and the Japanese regroup to attack her with the several hundred aircraft they still have.

Even if all of that happens to the US the long range outcome is much the same except the Japanese get another 6 to 12 months before the A bomb ends the war.

[Holedigger]

I seem to recall one of the War Colleges did a similar scenario. The outcome for the US Navy was something like 2-3 times the losses with just a slight increase in IJN losses. They had the US fleet sail out to meet the incoming fleet without the cover of the US Carriers. NOT a good outcome. I will dig and see if I can find the specifics on that study

[The Inspector]

Read Gordon W. Pranges book 'At dawn we slept' It covers a lot of the 'howcomes?' and 'whatifs' surrounding the run up to the IJN attack on Pearl Harbor, it seems that Roosevelt saw getting involved in the war as the quickest way to get America to shake off the lingering problems of the depression so things just sort of.....................happened.

In 1932 a wargame exercise was run by the Navy and came to the same conclusion that came about during the actual attack ,we were snoozing and got our butts handed to us in the attack. only I think the conclusions of the 1932 exercise came out quite a bit worse for US forces.

It's a facinating historical reference point.

[SaxMan]

You can pretty much "what if" the entire Pacific War. At Midway, what if Bombing 8 actually found the Hiryu in the morning strike? Yorktown would have never been attacked, and probably would have been back in time for the October/November Guadalcanal battles as she was going to go stateside for an overhaul after Midway. It's possible that Yorktown could have shared the same level of reverence that the "Big E" did had it survived Midway and the rest of the war.

Or, another Midway one...if the production schedule for the TBF was about a month forward, the torpedo squadrons would have gone in with the TBF instead of the TBD. I think losses would have still been very heavy, but not nearly as catastrophic.

[JBoyle]

As far as sending the B-17s after the Japanese fleet...Range, defenses and their own inexperience would have made a positive outcome unlikely.
-I can't see a good outcome with sending bombers out in a vague direction to find a fleet. Could they find them? Would thay have enough fuel to make it back to Hickam?
-Even if they did find the IJN ships, they would have been greatly outnumbered by Zekes. The majority of the B-17s were Ds (IIRC) with not the greatest defensive armament (as the RAF learned), it would not have been pretty for the 7th BG guys.
-And could they have even hit the moving ships which were throwing up defensive fire while dodging fighters?

[bootlegger]

Its funny. My wife gave me for christmas a map of the world jigsaw puzzle ( I still havent worked out why).

On Christmas day I studied that map and did my own what ifs and imagined how the Japanese ever thought they could hang onto the vastness of their front. Just from a logistics point of view it was doomed.

I also compared that to what the Germans were trying to achieve. Eventually I came up with a similar opinion albiet not on Logistic but cultural grounds.

Not meaning to start a food fight. Now go and check out the map of the Middle East. We are in trouble there. I wish there was another way to solve this problem.

[Jerry O'Neill]

And here I thought the thread was gonna be about the film "Pearl Harbor"!
"What IF" it was never made?!!!

We'd at least still have one more Tora Val flying!!!
Jerry

[jet1]

the nips would have lost a few more planes, but the ending would have been the same as we were outnumbered. Remember they had a another strike ready to go if need be.

Last edited by jet1 on Wed Dec 30, 2009 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Pat Carry]

And here I thought the thread was gonna be about the film "Pearl Harbor"!
"What IF" it was never made?!!!

We'd at least still have one more Tora Val flying!!!
Jerry

A good one Jerry!

[Pat Carry]

There are alot of "what ifs". I have always thought about "what if" D Day had failed. Most probably Russian troops would have reached the shores of the English Channel or we would have been dropping nukes all over Hitler's Reich before that could happen.

Last edited by Pat Carry on Wed Dec 30, 2009 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[Scepter]

What if we had F-14's..........http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=785nchHwII4

sorry could not resist.
pretty cool flying in that clip

[Bill Greenwood]

It does seem incredible to me that the Japanese had the gall or guts or whatever to launch the attack in the first place, achieved complete surprise, then got cold feet and did not send in the final attack to really finish Pearl off.

Of course we are looking in hindsight we all we know of how little oposition we put up and what more damage could have been done. Yamamoto did not have an airiel view of Oahu during the battle, he had to rely on fragmented reports of fighter and bomber pilots, and pulled back too soon. Maybe they needed a recon plane high overhead to radio back a code.

A bigger victory would have perhaps given them another year of superiority in the Pacific, but they still would not have won the war.

Had American B-17s gone out and even found the carriers, they would likely not be able to hit a turning ship and few would have survived the Zeros.

[Nathan]

Our fighters could have strafed the decks of the Japanese carriers. Even just a few planes on the desk been destroyed would stop all operation from that carrier. Don't forget we also had Naval aircraft at Ewa. Pactically everything avialable would have been sent out.

It is a big question why they did not go for the third strike. I would estimate the Japanese would have lost double their aircraft had they made the third wave. But then again they would have been able to damage or destroy the oil tanks and dry docks. Something they failed to do in the first two attacks.

[oscardeuce]

I seem to recall one of the War Colleges did a similar scenario. The outcome for the US Navy was something like 2-3 times the losses with just a slight increase in IJN losses. They had the US fleet sail out to meet the incoming fleet without the cover of the US Carriers. NOT a good outcome. I will dig and see if I can find the specifics on that study

They mentioned that scenario too on the History Channel.

The loss of trained sailors was the biggest difference and would have affected the outcome.

As it was we were able to "update" the fleet and send out newer ships with experienced crews.