warbirds for sale on the open market are slim

[tom d. friedman]

i posted a thread on this topic a few years ago, but now it seems to have gotten worse. mind you, i'm in no postion $$$$ wise to buy 1, but after picking up the latest issue of trade a plane magazine it seems the pickings are slimmer than ever. all that is in the majority for sale are nanchangs, l-29's a few t-6's & t-28's. nothing wrong with these types, but the real dyed in the wool warbirds that people really go bananas for just aren't on the market other than 2 f8f's which are near the 2 million dollar mark. has the prices of warbirds peaked?? the average person has no expendable income due to a crap economy?? the gas prices?? what?? i haven't checked out barnstormers, but i'd bet if trade a plane is that thin, then barnstormers isn't far behind. also, i've noticed that ebay, is lately ebust, everbody is dumping from A TO Z, cheap right down to granddads old truss!! what are your opinions to the warbird drought?? or am i dried up??

[Bill Greenwood]

I have a friend who is a good pilot and has $600k , maybe 700k to spend on a fighter type, and does not really see anything of interest.

[n5151ts]

do you think I can race a Sukhoi-27UB at reno...oh I forgot...no AB allowed..
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/SU-27UB- ... dZViewItem

[O.P.]

It has always been that way, it's always too much. I've heard all of the stories about 700 dollar mustangs and 800 dollar bearcats, and guess what, that hurt at that time too. Besides being a good percentage of what almost anyone would have earned at that time, the thing still ate you out of house and home at 10 cents a gallon gas.

I've talked to some of those guys, and their wives, about those early purchases. Heheeeheee. Unhappy about it, is putting it lightly in some cases.

They all look like geniuses now, It only took 20-30-40 years. Heheeeeee

H3ll, I could buy a one owner 98 corolla, leave it in my garage for 40 years, and I would be a genious too. Master of the vintage car.

Money and time always works. Every day of the week-month-decade-century. You just gotta be patient, and in the case of those kinda things, you gotta take your share of crap for doing it. "That thing is useless" "It uses to much gas" "It only has one seat" "It is dangerous" "Why is this still in the garage/backyard" ect, ect ,ect.

I am going to do the same thing. I'd like a mustang/bearcat/corsair/ect, but, that ain't probably gonna happen. So, I've decided to concentrate my efforts on jet warbirds. And you know what? I'm getting the same kinda talk those guys must have got back in the day. "It worthless" "It drinks to much gas" "Where are you going to put it?" and everything thing else under the sun. This is from Warbird guys too. Go figure. History repeats itself.

There are so many jet warbirds out there waiting for love. It is the same opportunity that presented itself to those guys years ago.

30 years from now, me be a genious too.

[mgeorge51]

I predict prices will continue to go up with only minor adjustments.
The average buyer now does not need a loan to purchase a 1.5 million dollar airplane. Several of the new guys are buying a bunch of different aircraft within a very short time period.
I am glad I bought mine a long time ago, 1989 and 1999. I do not have the income to purchase either aircraft at their current values.
Most of the new guys I have met waited untill they came into a sum of money and then purchased a fighter type.
It is also common for them to purchase an aircraft knowing that they will only have the plane for a couple of years. This kind of goes together with the waiting plan. If you wait till you are 55 to 60 years old to buy these sort of things, the time available to keep them will be that much shorter.
I bet you can count the real enthusiast owners left on the fingers of your two hands.
Enthusiasts being the owners who actually work on their own planes or at least help the mechanic, run their own parts, and do the flying as well. Even the chore flying such as the drop off to the mechanic and the trip to the airshow.

One major expense that has to be overlooked or no one would buy these things. What if I had the money in the bank? Two million in the bank for a Spitfire = $120,000 per year at 6%. Thats 10,000 per month. I doubt they will appreciate enough to cover this hidden cost.

[mustangpilot]

You are right on Mike. 10 years ago these planes were all 600K each which I thought was high. If I sold my Corsair or Mustang I would never be able to afford to replace them at these current prices plus I would get taxed to death. I'm afraid I'm stuck with the old planes. I was one of the lucky ones.

Brian Reynolds

[Randy Haskin]

What if I had the money in the bank? Two million in the bank for a Spitfire = $120,000 per year at 6%. Thats 10,000 per month. I doubt they will appreciate enough to cover this hidden cost.

What bank are you using that's paying you 6%??

[P51Mstg]

Right now ETrade Bank pays like 5%+ change, so getting 6% shouldn't be hard, takes some shopping though.

Mark H

[Cvairwerks]

One of the problems is long period we've had of way too easy to get credit. The average American has the equivlent of close to 50% of their income out in unsecured credit. With the rates for late payments, defaults and forclosures increasing every month, they are living paycheck to paycheck. Even though we gross neawrly 2 times the average US income, I'd be hard pressed to go out and replace either of my projects. In fact, I've had to pass on a couple of real deals for aircraft due to cash flow and being not willing to incur any additional debt right now.

Once the "thousandaire earning/millionaire living" comes crashing down on people and they stop wallowing in the easy credit, and start living well within their income, it will free up the cash to start freely spending on warbirds again.

[Randy Haskin]

Well, I have zero debt and make a very decent living as a USAF officer (neighborhood of $90K/year before taxes)...and I still cannot afford to own/operate a warbird of any level (maybe an L-Bird) and support my family AND make sure I have money in savings/investments for the family's long-term fiscal health (retirement, emergencies, etc).

I have been pursuing buying a T-6 for about the last 4-5 years with varying levels of intensity. Buy-in prices have increased $50,000 on average in that span and operating costs have nearly doubled. Although I could probably find someone to give me a loan for that much, I doubt I could afford to fly it without "blowing" what I have in savings and various investments. I could afford to fly it for maybe another 4-5 years before I started eating into other areas of the budget that, for the other members of my family, are not on the table for re-directing into an airplane.

Warbirds are increasingly becoming a rich man's game, and moreso it seems every year.

In the "Young WIXers" thread people wondered why there wasn't more involvement by young people in the Warbird community. Well, this is it. The number of under-35 people who have this kind of disposeable income AND the time/skills to fly them are few.

Fortunately, there ARE people who are dedicated to making sure future generations are able to pick up the torch, and they are mentoring future owners, maintainers, and pilots. Again, though, those people are currently few and far between.

[AirJimL2]

Well, I have zero debt and make a very decent living as a USAF officer (neighborhood of $90K/year before taxes)...and I still cannot afford to own/operate a warbird of any level (maybe an L-Bird) and support my family AND make sure I have money in savings/investments for the family's long-term fiscal health (retirement, emergencies, etc).

I have been pursuing buying a T-6 for about the last 4-5 years with varying levels of intensity. Buy-in prices have increased $50,000 on average in that span and operating costs have nearly doubled. Although I could probably find someone to give me a loan for that much, I doubt I could afford to fly it without "blowing" what I have in savings and various investments. I could afford to fly it for maybe another 4-5 years before I started eating into other areas of the budget that, for the other members of my family, are not on the table for re-directing into an airplane.

In the "Young WIXers" thread people wondered why there wasn't more involvement by young people in the Warbird community. Well, this is it. The number of under-35 people who have this kind of disposeable income AND the time/skills to fly them are few.

I'm pretty much in a similar situation to Randy. The only debt I've got is my mortgage and I make a decent living, but even a Harvard purchase and long term operation is now out of reach. Sometimes I wish I had pulled the trigger to buy a Harvard about six or seven years ago before I was married. Prices were much better and I could have gotten away with spending everything to keep it flying. Not now.

Honestly, the cost of aviation has gotten to the point, that I've pretty much given up on flying and/or warbirds. Even if I could take the time from my practice to fly more, the cost is getting out of sight. I worry that even if I'm really to buy a L-bird in a few years...that prices will continue to appreciate in the 25%+ range and make even an L-bird out of responsible fiscal reach.

I’m 35 and something that I considered a reasonable possibility; operation of a Harvard, ten years ago, now seems something that just is unlikely to happen any time in the near (or far) future. And sadly, the operation of a fighter and/or TBM or such is nothing but pure fantasy for most “enthusiast” pilots including myself. Cost has pretty much ran me out of the hobby. I wonder how many more of us "younger" guys will meet the same fate. Sadly, that can't be a good thing for the long term future of operation of these wonderful airplanes.

Jim

[tom d. friedman]

my divorce 12 years ago pretty well cleaned my clock. it took me 7 years to get back on track. a warbird, flying lessons etc wasn't in the cards then, nor now as kids, home obligations, etc come 1st, but i haven't chucked the passion for warbirds. i have my collection of antique aviation memorabilia, turned it into a sideline business, i make a few bucks, it pays some bills & keeps me active in the movement. and then......... i buy my mega millions lottery tickets twice a week, you never know!!

[DB2]

One major expense that has to be overlooked or no one would buy these things. What if I had the money in the bank? Two million in the bank for a Spitfire = $120,000 per year at 6%. Thats 10,000 per month. I doubt they will appreciate enough to cover this hidden cost.

I would argue that to really consider a (flying) warbird an equity investment you must factor in hull insurance @, say, 3%. That means to match a $2M money market (current rates) the value of the warbird would have to increase at 9% a year...which would say our Spitfire would have to sell for $4.7M in 10 years just to cover the "near risk-free" cost of capital for the owner.

On a condition-weighted, inflation-adjusted basis, I don't think the values of warbirds have really changed that much over the last 10 years. There is a flyable, stock T-28 on Courtesy right now for $119k, and there have been flyable T-6s for the same amount recently.

What has changed is the condition of many birds...I think the warbirds selling today are, on average, in much better condition than ones 20 years ago. So, yes, the average price has increased, but so has the quality of the product.

[mgeorge51]

OK guys here is my motivation speech to buying warbirds.
Graduated college 1984 net worth -14,000 (thats negative)
Starting pay $28,000 I think it was up to 75K by the time I bought the T-34.
First warbird 1987 $149,000 for one of the first 300hp T-34's put half down, and paid off the loan in about a year.
Things that helped to make this happen.
1. 25 years old owned my own home but had 2 roommates who paid most of the mortgage.
2. No wife, No kids
3. No other debt then home and airplane.
4. No habits other then girlfriend and boys nite once a week
5. Found a way to write off the T-34 and the government paid for a good amount of the interest etc. with tax savings. Also some income from this venture.
6. Worked literally 7 days a week no vacations or sick time for 2 years. Some days start at 7 Am, not home till 11 Pm, and 2 to 3 phone calls in the middle of the night. Sometimes lunch and dinner at the office. If you can work for yourself you will get all the rewards of your efforts.

I remember two things that affected my direction. The first was a guy who wrote an article about buying a Ferrarri for interest only for a year and then selling for more then you paid for it, covering the total costs for how long it was owned. This is of course dangerous but when I combined the tax breaks with the income from the business venture the interest was paid in full leaving only the principal to be paid net.
The other thing I remember is a statement from a high school teacher that told us that we had more disposable income as seniors then our parents. This is not totally true but it isn't far from the truth. Starting out with no expenses, and no concerns for the future it is a lot easier to take risks then the guy with a house and kids and a car payment.

It was pretty scary buying a warbird at that young of an age but I was and still am driven to operate warbirds and I am perfectly willing to spend all that I have to do it.

Other hints
1. I have a full time mechanic for 14 aircraft on my payroll. the 15th aircraft has partners so my mechanic can't touch it for liability reasons. We pay over 4 times per hour at a retail rate for that aircrafts repairs, totalling nearly as much for the one as for the other 14. I suggest 3 or four guys getting together and sharing a mechanic.
2. T-6's and similar aircraft can help support themselves by giving rides and in some cases show up fees at airshows. Can be fun doing it but after a while it gets old.
3. When we operated the B-25 we used to fill up shows. When we got home we would empty about 200 galons out and save it for traing. The next show would fill it up again.
4. I have only had insurance for hull one year for 3 aircraft in 20 years. Huge risk but I am winning so far.
5. I maintain a huge database of other operators. Sometimes a part that is $2,400 I have found for less then $800.

Please be carefull to take this in the spirit I have tried to support your future airplane habit. I have applied these ideas and have amassed a reasonable collection on a good but not out of the world income.
I have a good eye for quality but I sometimes use the term "low budget high adventure" to describe my well known cheap scate character. There are ways to do it "right " on a budget.

[Hal B]

I'm afraid I'm stuck with the old planes.

Brian Reynolds

Well Brian, if you don't want the old pieces of junk I could probably find someone who'd be happy to take 'em off your hands for a slight fee...