Warbird Information Exchange

Hello all,

Seeing how there is some really tight tension with the current North Korea I wanted to ask what everyones thoughts are on the current situation?

For years I have always been worried that war would come again to North Korea. While I do not have a big interest in politics nor keep up on such relations. I have always felt that North Korea is a country not to mess with and could seriously be a tremendous enemy if war came. Sadly it looks like maybe the current North Korea attacks are a small glimpse into the darkening future hanging over North Korea. :-/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_clash

-Nathan

Method in the madness
John Garnaut, Beijing
November 27, 2010

BEHIND North Korea's cartoon dictator, handful of semi-functional nuclear weapons and threats of ''merciless'' retaliation there is a desperate and exhausted nation that can barely concentrate beyond the next meal.

If there is any cause for reassurance after this week's deadly attack on South Korean civilians and revelations that North Korea has a second nuclear program, it is that Kim Jong-il and his generals may be dangerous but there is little evidence they are collectively mad.

''Do you think the North Korean military is stupid enough to have a war with America?'' says Park Syung-je, of the Asia Strategy Institute in Seoul. ''Do you think his son and others want suicide? I don't think that is possible.''

North Korea has the world's second-largest army with more than a million soldiers and nearly 5 million reservists, despite its population shrinking to just 23 million people after two decades of famine and malnutrition. But even within this privileged military strata soldiers are physically stunted, equipment is not maintained and even bullets are in short supply.

The factories of North Korea's once-proud industrial machine have been pillaged for scrap, workers have been abandoned to forage for themselves and basic supply chains have broken down. North Korea has the firepower to inflict catastrophic losses in Seoul, just 50 kilometres south of the border, but few analysts believe it is genuinely prepared for war. ''Do you think North Korea has enough food, fuel and ammunition for all-out war? I don't think so,'' says Park.

The security stakes are nevertheless getting higher as China continues its all-out courtship of North Korea as a buffer state against the United States and its allies.

Jia Qingguo, vice-dean of Peking University's School of International Studies, says China believes it needs a viable North Korea for as long as America sells weapons to Taiwan. ''If the US is a threat then North Korea has dual importance because if there is a military conflict then North Korea can be strategically very valuable because South Korea is an ally of the US,'' says Professor Jia. ''This is the logic … China-North Korea relations happen within this bigger contest.''

China has avoided apportioning any blame for this week's North Korean artillery bombardment that killed two marines and two civilians and wounded more than a dozen others, in what is said to be the first attack on South Korean civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War.

China's latest moves to draw closer to its wayward neighbour include reglorifying their joint exploits during the devastating Korean War, which many Chinese historians agree began with the North invading the South. It was ''a just war to defend peace against aggression from the United States'', said Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is expected to begin succeeding President Hu Jintao in 2012.

One of the legacies of that war is that North Korea and China never accepted the US-imposed ''northern limit line'', which closely hugs the North Korean coast in the Yellow Sea. The North claims a ''military demarcation line'' that more evenly divides the seas between two countries and which is much further to the south. It is instructive that the torpedoing of the Cheonan warship in March and this week's shelling of a South Korean island both occurred in territory claimed by both sides.

There is internal logic for the military's supreme command of North Korea claiming that this week's deadly bombardment was ''retaliation'' against South Korean military exercises in those disputed waters. It said those exercises were military provocation and ''a sinister attempt to defend the brigandish 'northern limit line' ''.

The statement continued: ''Should the puppet administration of south Korea'' - lower case ''s'' to emphasise it is not an independent country - ''dare intrude into the territorial waters of the DPRK, even by 0.001 mm, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will without hesitation continue to mercilessly strike back. The only maritime military demarcation line in Korea's West Sea is set by the DPRK.''

At midyear, China unleashed a barrage of threats against unofficial US plans to conduct war games with the South Korean navy in those Yellow Sea waters, after the sinking of the Cheonan.

Such plans were shelved in deference to Chinese sensitivities. But tomorrow the US aircraft carrier USS George Washington will arrive in those same waters carrying 6000 personnel and 75 warplanes, together with four companion ships and a submarine.

Although China is a strategic ally of North Korea it is far from being a trusted friend. Each year, North Korean soldiers shoot and kill tens of Chinese traders on the Chinese side of the Yalu River, Chinese security sources have told The Age.

North Korea's leaders could never assume that China would blindly follow them into war. A diplomat told The Age that he met this week a senior North Korean official who appeared ''really worried'' and particularly anxious to return to six-party talks about denuclearisation. ''Probably one reason is to not be so dependent on one country: China,'' said the diplomat.

The Korean official had also claimed North Korea had warned South Korea on a ''hotline'' of the imminent attack but that warning was not heeded. South Korea's defence minister resigned on Thursday amid accusations his military was not sufficiently prepared.

Analysts in China say the other reason for North Korea's provocations is that, perversely, constantly destabilising the international environment helps to stabilise internal regime loyalty during awkward leadership succession to Kim's 26-year-old son, Kim Jong-un. This week's escalating brinkmanship is unlikely to trigger war but the risks are getting higher.

I can't remember who said 'If you aren't scared by it, you don't understand it'; but in the case of North Korea, that's about it. The more I read, the more I'm reminded of the 1930s military-led racist and effectively totalitarian Japan.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 075796.htm

http://www.slate.com/id/2243112/