war with North Korea

[Nathan]

Hello all,

Seeing how there is some really tight tension with the current North Korea I wanted to ask what everyones thoughts are on the current situation?

For years I have always been worried that war would come again to North Korea. While I do not have a big interest in politics nor keep up on such relations. I have always felt that North Korea is a country not to mess with and could seriously be a tremendous enemy if war came. Sadly it looks like maybe the current North Korea attacks are a small glimpse into the darkening future hanging over North Korea. :-/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_clash

-Nathan

[Kyleb]

Hello all,

Seeing how there is some really tight tension with the current North Korea I wanted to ask what everyones thoughts are on the current situation?

For years I have always been worried that war would come again to North Korea. While I do not have a big interest in politics nor keep up on such relations. I have always felt that North Korea is a country not to mess with and could seriously be a tremendous enemy if war came. Sadly it looks like maybe the current North Korea attacks are a small glimpse into the darkening future hanging over North Korea. :-/

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_koreas_clash

-Nathan

IMO, the fundamental issue with the NorKs is that they are led by a personality cult. Individuals at the top of a cult like that will do more or less anything to retain power, and when they see their power collapsing, they will lash out and try and go out with a big bang. Now that they have the bomb, it is entirely possible that the big bang could be Seoul or Tokyo. So how far do you push them?

From a conventional standpoint, I believe they are similar to the Iraqis of 20 years ago. They have a big army and lots of generation or two old equipment. That means they could launch a surprise attack and do a lot of damage until airpower was brought to the theater to stop/attrit them. By that time, they would have rolled through Seoul and much of South Korea. Sure, you (we) could and would throw them out, but the loss of life and the financial loss would already be tremendous. Beyond that, as they were decimated, would they eventually go nuclear or make an open threat to go nuclear? Then, what do you do?

This is a situation where the US doesn't need to get dragged into something as South Korea's big brother. Also, as North Korea's "big brother", the Chinese need to find a way to put a lid on these clowns.

[JDK]

Some interesting context here.

Method in the madness
John Garnaut, Beijing
November 27, 2010

BEHIND North Korea's cartoon dictator, handful of semi-functional nuclear weapons and threats of ''merciless'' retaliation there is a desperate and exhausted nation that can barely concentrate beyond the next meal.

If there is any cause for reassurance after this week's deadly attack on South Korean civilians and revelations that North Korea has a second nuclear program, it is that Kim Jong-il and his generals may be dangerous but there is little evidence they are collectively mad.

''Do you think the North Korean military is stupid enough to have a war with America?'' says Park Syung-je, of the Asia Strategy Institute in Seoul. ''Do you think his son and others want suicide? I don't think that is possible.''

North Korea has the world's second-largest army with more than a million soldiers and nearly 5 million reservists, despite its population shrinking to just 23 million people after two decades of famine and malnutrition. But even within this privileged military strata soldiers are physically stunted, equipment is not maintained and even bullets are in short supply.

The factories of North Korea's once-proud industrial machine have been pillaged for scrap, workers have been abandoned to forage for themselves and basic supply chains have broken down. North Korea has the firepower to inflict catastrophic losses in Seoul, just 50 kilometres south of the border, but few analysts believe it is genuinely prepared for war. ''Do you think North Korea has enough food, fuel and ammunition for all-out war? I don't think so,'' says Park.

The security stakes are nevertheless getting higher as China continues its all-out courtship of North Korea as a buffer state against the United States and its allies.

Jia Qingguo, vice-dean of Peking University's School of International Studies, says China believes it needs a viable North Korea for as long as America sells weapons to Taiwan. ''If the US is a threat then North Korea has dual importance because if there is a military conflict then North Korea can be strategically very valuable because South Korea is an ally of the US,'' says Professor Jia. ''This is the logic … China-North Korea relations happen within this bigger contest.''

China has avoided apportioning any blame for this week's North Korean artillery bombardment that killed two marines and two civilians and wounded more than a dozen others, in what is said to be the first attack on South Korean civilians since the 1950-53 Korean War.

China's latest moves to draw closer to its wayward neighbour include reglorifying their joint exploits during the devastating Korean War, which many Chinese historians agree began with the North invading the South. It was ''a just war to defend peace against aggression from the United States'', said Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is expected to begin succeeding President Hu Jintao in 2012.

One of the legacies of that war is that North Korea and China never accepted the US-imposed ''northern limit line'', which closely hugs the North Korean coast in the Yellow Sea. The North claims a ''military demarcation line'' that more evenly divides the seas between two countries and which is much further to the south. It is instructive that the torpedoing of the Cheonan warship in March and this week's shelling of a South Korean island both occurred in territory claimed by both sides.

There is internal logic for the military's supreme command of North Korea claiming that this week's deadly bombardment was ''retaliation'' against South Korean military exercises in those disputed waters. It said those exercises were military provocation and ''a sinister attempt to defend the brigandish 'northern limit line' ''.

The statement continued: ''Should the puppet administration of south Korea'' - lower case ''s'' to emphasise it is not an independent country - ''dare intrude into the territorial waters of the DPRK, even by 0.001 mm, the revolutionary armed forces of the DPRK will without hesitation continue to mercilessly strike back. The only maritime military demarcation line in Korea's West Sea is set by the DPRK.''

At midyear, China unleashed a barrage of threats against unofficial US plans to conduct war games with the South Korean navy in those Yellow Sea waters, after the sinking of the Cheonan.

Such plans were shelved in deference to Chinese sensitivities. But tomorrow the US aircraft carrier USS George Washington will arrive in those same waters carrying 6000 personnel and 75 warplanes, together with four companion ships and a submarine.

Although China is a strategic ally of North Korea it is far from being a trusted friend. Each year, North Korean soldiers shoot and kill tens of Chinese traders on the Chinese side of the Yalu River, Chinese security sources have told The Age.

North Korea's leaders could never assume that China would blindly follow them into war. A diplomat told The Age that he met this week a senior North Korean official who appeared ''really worried'' and particularly anxious to return to six-party talks about denuclearisation. ''Probably one reason is to not be so dependent on one country: China,'' said the diplomat.

The Korean official had also claimed North Korea had warned South Korea on a ''hotline'' of the imminent attack but that warning was not heeded. South Korea's defence minister resigned on Thursday amid accusations his military was not sufficiently prepared.

Analysts in China say the other reason for North Korea's provocations is that, perversely, constantly destabilising the international environment helps to stabilise internal regime loyalty during awkward leadership succession to Kim's 26-year-old son, Kim Jong-un. This week's escalating brinkmanship is unlikely to trigger war but the risks are getting higher.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/method-i ... 18apw.html

[tom d. friedman]

north korea is a "back assword" country that reflects the worst aspects of communism. even the cubans are more humane, & communism is cracking their too.

[JDK]

The issue is that it's a military totalitarian dictatorship, rather than any brand of political theory they pay lip service to.

[RyanShort1]

Well, Congress never declared war on North Korea, so Constitutionally, we've never been at war with them. On the other hand, there is merely an agreement to cease-fire / armistice currently in place, so technically, the "war" is not yet over... I personally think that we made a real mistake to be there in the first place, and another, not to finish it.

Ryan

[bdk]

#1. PRC and North Korea were at war AFTER the north vs. south police action ended. I wouldn't count on them being best buddies unless it was to the PRC's significant advantage.

#2. Now that "combat operations have ceased in Iraq," there should be ample opportunity for the US under the guidance of its fearless leader BHO to staff up in the region, no?

[JDK]

I can't remember who said 'If you aren't scared by it, you don't understand it'; but in the case of North Korea, that's about it. The more I read, the more I'm reminded of the 1930s military-led racist and effectively totalitarian Japan.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 075796.htm

http://www.slate.com/id/2243112/

[airnutz]

I can't remember who said 'If you aren't scared by it, you don't understand it'; but in the case of North Korea, that's about it. The more I read, the more I'm reminded of the 1930s military-led racist and effectively totalitarian Japan.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010 ... 075796.htm

http://www.slate.com/id/2243112/

...And very Orwellian. I don't imagine the Winston Smith's raise their heads very high, nor for very long in that environment.

[Jiggersfromsphilly]

Why are we worried? Do really think China with all its economic development will let these guys do anything serious?

[Jiggersfromsphilly]

Why are we worried? Do really think China with all its economic development will let these guys do anything serious?

[JDK]

Because Kim may just be as accurate as you at hitting the 'send' button - in his case, on a nuke.

[bdk]

According to some of the Wikileaks documents, China doesn't have as much control or understanding over the NKs as many people thought.

[Bill Greenwood]

There was a great editorial cartoon in the Austin paper recently, during Thanksgiving.
It shows N Korea as a small country behind a fence like you'd have at the zoo. Poking out of the middle is a missle. It is sort of primitive looking, lines not straight and rivets showing. There is a small window on top of the missle and Kim and his Son are peeking out of the window.

The caption on the side of the missle says, "THANKS TO OUR PEOPLE WHO STARVE SO THAT OTHERS MAY BE INCINERATED".
Kind of grim humor, but funny and accurate.

Let's hope the mad munckin or someone there has even a bit of common sense.