Warbird Information Exchange

Ask and thou shalt receive:

"The search was conducted using Nauticos’ deep-ocean sonar search system, NOMAD, which was towed at the end of a 10,000-meter steel armored, fiber-optic cable. NOMAD performed flawlessly for 27 days of survey, covering some 630 square nautical miles of ocean bottom at 18,000 feet depth and one-meter resolution. Day turned to night as NOMAD remained near the ocean floor, at one point being deployed for nearly eleven days of continuous operation before being retrieved, serviced, and sent back down. The sonar revealed vast undersea plains, volcanic ridges, and mile-wide craters never before seen by man."

See: Summer 2002, Volume X, #2 'Search for the Electra' Top middle link on the page.

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Doc Bob
aviationmystery.com

Thanks, Bob!

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Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???

I see your thinking, but the ocean is big enough anyway, without the complication of seamounts. I sometimes try to visualize the land as if it were under water, and think how long could a plane remain hidden there if I could only look by walking or whatever, I mean, we can see for about 20 miles to the horizon, how far away could an Electra be -especially in pieces- before I could see it -ignoring trees etc

Even on land there is a limit on how fast we can explore an area, high-speed aircraft can take high-resolution pictures, but they'll need analysts to study them for many hours, so there is a limit on how quickly we can search for things, even in our 'home' environment, of course we have the luxury of satellites too, but none of them -as far as we know lol- are designed just to look at the sea-floor in the detail we'd need.

It really is a mammoth task, and every time I visualize mountains and canyons under the sea, I get depressed at the thought we may never find the plane.

The sheer size of the area coupled with the underwater terrain along with the 'target' size is why I think it will never be found. In my opinion it is a monumental waste of time and money to even try.

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Always looking for WW2 Half-Tracks and Parts.

I hear you, when you think of the search for MH370 -if it is in the right area- that is a heck of a lot of plane and still in over a year no trace of it, and there have been grumblings for months about how long the search can continue given costs and use of resources. What do they do if they draw a blank?

I've said before that the experts in the field are no closer to finding the plane than they were in 1937, there is so much arrogance about who is right, yet essentially no one has any more evidence than anyone else -well, unless Mr Billings and East New Britain is where it's at, although that can lead to the 'eye-witness' testimony from Saipan too...

There greater minds than mine working on this, I really have no clue, except I doubt Gardner, out of all the hypotheses, for the size of target -and some of it is on the surface- it has had the greatest amount of time, effort and certainly a lot of money thrown at it, and yet has yielded nothing incontrovertibly linked to either crew or plane.

Waitt and co. spent a fortune with state of the art technology and found an oil drum and a bit of pipe, IIRC. It could just be that the best in the field are wrong, and when they eventually do get to test their different hypotheses somewhere in the Pacific, they could be asking the same question as I 'feel' the search team for MH370 will be when their current search is over: "Where next?"

If it is ever found, some egos are going to implode, and I do think it will be more luck than judgement...but there is a part of me that feels NR16020 is lost forever.

In a weird way, AE and FN are more 'immortal' now than if they had succeeded...kind of reminds me of the Antarctic, when Amundsen beat Scott to the Pole, Amundsen said for years it riled him that the bloke who lost was remembered more than the one who won -heck, we Brits were nasty to him, calling his team "Dog-eaters" because they ate their dogs, as part of the planning. Hmm, 1912 was a bad year for Brits, first Scott then a few weeks later the Titanic -interestingly, Titanic too failed, and is remembered more than almost any successful ship in history.

Maybe the way to immortality is failure.

That string of seamounts along the 157-337 line is daunting to think of - and I have to admit it's lunacy to think of searching that exhaustively -

I also think that simplicity calls for at least the initial assumption that the flight did reach something approximating that line - but perhaps miles to east or west of it, too. Which doesn't help - big footprint.

Gardner's sea mount alone is similar to the sea mounts described - very complex and sloped sea floor that could hide an Electra, despite best efforts, regardless of what the chances are of it being there (just sayin').

Have to admit that I'm coming to grips with the notion of never finding her after all these years of believing it to be inevitable, wherever she is: it is not inevitable at all.

MH 370? Look to the 'stans...

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Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???

It would be interesting to hear Gary LaPook give some insights into where the Stratus team plans to search, but I can understand why the "Crash-and-Sank" groups have to be careful tipping their cards since there are so many in competition.

It would be interesting to hear anything of Stratus' current status, for that matter, and what the prospects of a search expedition are.

The thing with crash-and-sank is the data isn't good, many assumptions as to where the plane was, how much fuel remained, whether the silence was due to them going in from fuel exhaustion or some other matter such as the blown fuse -again, maybe a valve/tube went, who knows? I think these two are the most critical; the the lack of radio, was it fuel exhaustion or failure of a component or even the fuse? I'm sure I read somewhere that on the way to Hawaii a fuse blew because Manning was using the radio a lot -can't remember the source, so can't verify- but if that is the case, the radio was most heavily used trying to contact Itasca, not improbable that the fuse blew; something I think about is that some sources state that Itasca kept transmitting on all frequencies, if that were the case Earhart may have been transmitting but no one would hear her, and of course that increases the likelihood of the fuse blowing -or even just giving up transmitting "What's the point.."

So, if the radio silence was due equipment failure, the fuel endurance then becomes critical, and I can't see how either can be satisfactorily resolved, pundits keep on arguing how far she could have gone on whatever fuel she had remaining, the low fuel figure being an interpretation of what she meant by 'half hour of gas'; to me it always seemed a strange thing to say, unless on previous flights she'd got down to a similar level, but how would she know it was a half hour -give or take a few minutes? I can understand looking at the gauges and saying 'an eighth of fuel remaining' or 'gas almost gone' but seems weird to say what she said -if she actually said it of course! But special pleading aside, the amount of fuel is a pointless pursuit unless we know why she stopped transmitting; she could have plunged into the briny within minutes of the last known call or have travelled an unknown period of time with a busted radio. No one knows, we weren't there, all we have is guesses and assumptions, we can't even be sure she stayed on the 157/337 line, it certainly seems crazy to think that Noonan would have attempted to stay on it for two to three hours even if he had the fuel. They were 'sure' they were in the vicinity of Howland, so it seems logical to search for it with the fuel remaining, not carry on a line to God knows where, and as Mr LaPook has said Noonan did have a view of the Moon to shoot.

MH370:
These kind of events are pretty interesting, not just from the POV of the event itself, but all the trains of thought as a social process. When you think of it NR16020 was precursor to this phenomena, with all kinds of notions where she ended up over the years, and each proponent thoroughly convinced they are right, from a beheaded aviatrix in the Marshall Islands to and ID swap back home, and the lack of definite information can only help their causes.

Many proponents of course get roped in as 'conspiracy nuts' and I think in many cases that is true, I believe there is a mindset of kind of hyper-scepticism bordering on paranoia; many of the folks I know that believe in one conspiracy theory are more likely to accept another -9/11 is an interesting one, I've known people adopt any or all of the competing theories at some stage, but immediately dismiss the 'official' version because the Reptilian Illuminati Overlords run all world governments!

The diverse theories muddy the water, and many proponents often use a process sceptics call 'Gish Gallop' where they throw too much erroneous, faulty or untrue or half-true data, real-time in live debate or over pages on the Internet, then claim victory when not all points are countered or when one point has some validity.

Recently a guy was going on about Obama turning down a FOI request for the NSA to divulge any information it had on MH370, I've looked a little into it -it's not something I'll lose sleep over- and so far I have not seen it mentioned in any credible source, so have no idea as to the truth of it. But many people viewing these sites won't even check the data, they go from site to site with their own bias, then come across one that seems to match their belief and then find everything therein either Gospel or discounted because "He can't be right about everything".

I've done this myself, I like history and have my view of many historical 'mysteries', Custer at LBH, Varius' Lost Legions, the Ninth Hispana, the White Bird, Gobleki Tepe etc, and find myself often cheering the heroic truth seeker who agrees with my view, and chastising the ill-informed buffoon who dares to get it wrong lol

Is there more data on MH370 than we are led to believe? If there is more, the Australians are throwing a lot of resource at the current hypothesis, so are either being duped or are part of an elaborate 'hoax', but it could just be all the data there is. It certainly seems possible that at a very high level someone knows more than they are letting on, but to say anything could jeopardize a whole program or tip the hand as to that country's surveillance abilities...and certainly in many countries the security services are almost a state within a state...and compared with an individual nation's security what are the lives of a few people? Oh no, I've turned into a conspiracy theorist lol

Regarding MH 370 -

Like so many things, what we see the Australians doing can be considered to be perfectly legitimate. What is really known internally may never be known. We should always recognize that 'public confidence' is vital, no matter the 'facts'. We are by and large sheep who must graze in this world, and we depend on our sheep dogs to do things known and unknown to us as we sleep. I believe the real point is that if the airplane was purloined, it is of no more threat than the next transport might be as to being misused against us. Probably less, if it is a known quantity somewhere.

Public confidence also depends on 'all being found out that can be found out' in terms of technical issues - and even if nothing is every found, the public won't forgive if all efforts are not made - even if we are really being shielded from a hijacking that shouldn't have been possible.

Now, tin foil hat off head and back in desk drawer...

Yes - it would be good to hear more about Stratus and others and things-lost at sea in terms of 'how do you know where to start', etc.

However silly some view Gardner as being, at least it is a boxable search in relative terms - gotta give her that. So is ENB - but with even more challenge as to 'how she got there' as many see it.

Every one of the searchers does share one hurdle -

Dang it is a very big ocean, after all...

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Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???

I am unfamiliar with those old style radios,..would there be an indicator to the operator that the fuse blew or power source became interrupted? Interesting the lack of radio transmission following her last accepted one,( unless as mentioned, water impact followed shortly thereafter); ...Tighar's version, seems to imply that this switching of frequencies may have resulted in the loss of the one sided contact that was previously experienced,....if Earhart was unaware of a blown fuse situation, it seems Tighar's scenario would have her replace that fuse upon touchdown on Gardner, thus no land in sight or any other transmission pre touchdown. Strange though, if Betty's notebook is reliable, that fuse would almost seem to have been changed in flight, for it reads as immediate semi-shock reaction pleas from crash victims.

Hi Jeff,

MH370
What saddens me, if it was a hijacking, is that the lives of those passengers can actually be worth nothing to parties involved, we know terrorists don't give a stuff, and it seems quite feasible that in the great scheme of things a few hundred lives lost is nothing compared to the security of a nation or the revelation of intelligence gathering techniques, like a battle where a general may send a company to certain death to save a division.

I have no clue, I see supporting evidence for quite a few ideas, but only time will tell -maybe. As for danger, something that occurs to me -tin-foil hat on- is that it may have been a 'proof of concept' by whomever done-what-was-did, they now know that the technique isn't perfect…but can learn!!

Gardner
Yeah, I do sometimes forget that we are all humans, and most folks involved with TIGHAR are genuine in their belief, I was at first, in fact Gardner was what rekindled my interest, I'd heard of Earhart's zipper and shoe being found, went over to TIGHAR, started reading, and started bashing my head lol

At least the TIGHAR supporters have conviction and a direction to go in...

Hey I'm no expert, not in valves/tubes, I've built a few amps -even made a little valve pedal amp but it eats batteries- but I'm more a transistor guy (with occasional forays into IC's) -I build guitar amps and a few effects, and in the last few years have been focusing on making Germanium transistor ones -and some Germaniums don't come cheap -but a lovely sound lol

I had a look and found that the fuse I referred to was in Elgen & Marie long's 'Amelia Earhart The Mystery Solved' book, page 91.

A fuse was replaced at Darwin too, on the second attempt and the mechanician gave Amelia some spare fuses, but I can't remember about replacement, and there is a lot to read. The dynamotor was under her chair so a fuse there would require her out of the seat and some fiddling around, but at the back of my mind I remember something about a main bus fuse that had to replaced on the ground -maybe the one Ric/TIGHAR are referring to- but it could be that is the one supposedly under the chair, it would be easier to replace on the ground.

Also, it seems that when Manning blew the fuse it meant that the aircraft no longer had generator power!!! It relied solely on battery power for the last hour or so of the Oakland>Hawaii flight -it had two batteries. Even with the generator working the transmitter depleted the battery faster than it could be charged, something like needing 15 minutes to recharge a 3 to 5 minute transmission, I think that was on the TIGHAR website in an article on NR16020. So, it's not like she could have transmitted non-stop anyway.

Also, I can't remember if it was Amelia's book 'Last Flight' or the Longs' fine work, but there was mention that the ammeter showed the battery was not charging/the generator wasn't working. So, maybe there was an indication of a blown fuse, if it registered during a stressful time…and this was at the end of a long flight and they were already two tired people by then, and tired people make mistakes.

I like vales/tubes though, there is something very comforting in the glow and warmth, I have an ancient oscilloscope I drag out every now and them in a nostalgia moment, I have a couple of digital ones I use for my sound work but they seem so clinical and cold, there seems something almost living about valves, although I do respect them having been bitten by them a few times in the past, but this oscilloscope is real Buster Crabbe Flash Gordon stuff, it is interesting to see the thermal drift and the stray EMF it gives out too…

When I first started out in electronics years ago one guy was telling me that because of the size of some valve equipment pests used to make homes in them, and sometimes they would just die in the equipment and their fluids or corpse could cause a short or change the characteristics of the circuit, and part of the troubleshooting was sniffing to see if you could detect decaying or burning rodent lol

There are plenty of more knowledgeable guys here than I, I'm sure they can help you out… I'm out of here either way…my vocation is calling...

MH 370 - good points, and I certainly did not mean to be callous as to the very sad loss of all those souls. It is all too easy to focus on the clinical aspects and forget that those people wound up somewhere gone from their loved ones and friends, for good.

Dry run / prototype - that is a chilling prospect, very interesting.

TIGHAR / Gardner devotees - hey, wish them luck, and kidding aside, I really wish the harsher 'Kool Aid' remarks would drop off where good people are adhering to something they have confidence in for their own reasons. I've not abandoned Niku myself.

My very first post there had to do with the shoe business and I was hooked. Things like the zipper pull, etc. revealed an incredible focus on micro-possibilities to me, were professionally found (King's guidance) and carefully evaluated (Talon zipper company, for example - who knew there was such a distinct history) - good stuff.

There are many good people excited about that Gardner prospect still. My gripe is with management's more egregious habits as I see them, not the idea, nor a quarrel with any adherent particularly, however fast they cling or not. Andrew M is one I exchange thoughts with at times and we differ severely at times, yet remain civil and productive in discussion - I respect the guy a great deal. He's a living example of someone who's willing to go to physical and mental extremes to meet the challenge of a search for what I see as the remotest possibility of success in a very remote and not so friendly place - pretty admirable stuff. And of course, all the more reason for the best possible planning, etc. - but he has to judge for himself. I respect that a lot.

Isn't that fair enough? Live and let live at some point once you've said your piece, as it were.

Personally gouging someone like Monty F as happens here at times just because he's determined to see a search through and gets a bit testy over his shoulder at those he sees as detractors doesn't advance the game, for instance. I myself poured tons of time into personally trying to find a fit (or not) for 2-2-V-1 while issuing a lot of encouragement of my own - including stiff-arming a great deal of early nay-saying - yet here I am, welcome enough.

If I criticize Gillespie, I need to also remember that he is focused like a laser (well, OK, like a weak 2 cell flashlight in terms of scaled-back / must do this year Niku VIII...) on a relatively searchable venue. While I gripe about his publicity methods, I need to also realize that indeed no search happens without someone raising something, and that the devil lives in the details of how it is done and differences of opinion as to what is effective or not.

As to what is effective, who knows:

One stray net hauled in by a drifting fishing boat could snag a chunk of the Electra somewhere and solve the whole thing, right out of the blue - despite all the mult-million dollar efforts - THAT's just how peculiar this whole thing really is. Thinking of that, humility seems like a much needed point for all concerned.

But yeah, hats off to those with a sense of direction... I don't see it as so plain anymore, but who knows...

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Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???

I'm as guilty as any for not seeing the human typing the posts, I think the ire thrown at TIGHAR is in part to be expected, being as it is the most visible target, it will attract more 'arrows', when you read around the Internet even folks not interested in the AE disappearance attack TIGHAR, with comments like "You guys need a life".

For me, in part, it is the fact that it is THE dominating hypothesis, and as Ric is seen as the go-to expert on all things Earhart, his word is taken as Gospel when he disrespects rival hypotheses and researchers, thus effectively destroying any chance they have of credibility -Ric says it is wrong, then it is wrong.

But Ric is not alone in this, most proponents of alternative hypotheses spend as much time chiding all other advocates for being wrong -despite the fact no one has the plane lol

I'm a fence-sitter, almost day-to-day new data, or reevaluation of the old, can swing me one way or another, from ENB to Gardner, but mostly crash-and-sank...until NR16020 fools us all and is found in the Himalayas or on Mars lol

As for MH370, it is perverse that as humanity gains knowledge as to how unique life is, and especially how unique a sentient human life is, that some people can still see a human life as worthless; it really seems the case that one thing shared, at the highest level, between enemies of advanced modern societies and the defenders of those societies, is that the lives of the ordinary people living in those societies are essentially worthless.

Thing is, we have no idea what happened to that plane, and certainly have no idea what the next terrorist atrocity will be -or even what group will undertake it- did many people expect, what seemed to be an ordinary hijacking, turn into deliberate mass murder?

With terrorism I am always reminded by the IRA in the UK during 'The Troubles' when a representative spoke to the UK security services about them foiling yet another bomb plot:

"You have to be lucky every time, we only have to be lucky once."

I'm not sure 'fence sitter' is a fair term; maybe you are just 'reasonable' as to your expectations, Gari. I guess I've come to be what I've called (borrowing from another poster) 'agnostic', at least - a form of fence sitting, or 'reasonableness', perhaps.

Yes, terrorism only requires a breakthrough once in a while, whereas defense means right every time to be fully effective. Terrorism is a horrible equation that I can only rationally equate with thuggary and criminality.

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Jeff Neville

Makin' smoke... where are you lady???