Warbird Information Exchange

Will 2019 in hindsight be the high water mark for Warbirds? I for one sincerely hope no as Iam a huge Warbird Nut. The ride program as been sharply curtailed. Ever since the tragedy with Collings Foundation in October 2019. Which by the way Iam a Plane Sponsor with Collings, and Iam of a similar mind set regarding Collings like Yoga Berra said it AINT OVER TILL ITS OVER. But i don't think much has been happening with the Yankee Air Museum on there ride program several others shut down like the b-17 Ye Olde Pub. Not sure how the CAF is doing.
Covid-19 stopped 3 Major Revenue Making Air Shows from happening Mid Atlantic Air Museum, Thunder Over Michigan, and Planes of Fame all big Revenue Producers within these organizations. How bad has it stung them?
You have some big time Major Players who have sizable personal collections of warbirds what becomes of these collections once these folks are no longer in the picture? Kermit Weeks, Jerry Yagen, and the death of Paul Allen. Your talking millions of dollars who is willing to step up to the plate to buy? is there anyone in these guys family willing to carry on. Kermit has a daughter, but so far I have not heard much about her. Paul Allen's sister sounds like she wants this whole warbird thing gone which is FHC. Jerry Yagen I simply don't know. Then Rod Lewis has been selling some of his toys as well. That might be a different situation. But who is out there with deep pockets to step up to the plate?
My last question is how are most of the major restoration shops doing business wise at this time are they holding there own? Is there enough projects in the pipeline to keep these shops busy several years inito the future? This topic is of course open to one and all, and Im intrerested in hearing what you have to say. Iam not an expert by any means. Call me very concerned about the Warbird Movement that I have known for roughly 45 years.

Ed,

Thank you for posting what you did. I generally feel that posting here is quite a leap due to the egos and hard feelings on this board. I respect your opinions and wanted to add my two cents with perhaps (no sense) added. While I may seem I am not agreeing with you it is in fact a hope that what you are saying may not be the truth to what should be, or is happening.

Joe

Opinion:

There is NO Warbird Movement IF the research, recovery, restoration and operation is funded by only one or several BIG FISH. It is something else, more akin to a wealthy pasttime or fad. There is no Formula One movement, there is an Industry that is F1. A movement is something that many people identify with and take part in. If many people take great interest in the RRR and O of Warbirds and perhaps a similar and joined group specializing in Vintage Aviation antique aircraft and their efforts create a group with a fellowship that in an interdependent way supports each other it better approximates a movement.

Is it healthy for the Warbird Industry to depend on the benefactors who amass great collections? There will always be thise who can afford to purchase and restore the special planes, just as in the car hobby. But the grassroots is the key to survival of any hobby. And in the "Warbird and Antique" aspects, its dying. Look at Staggerwing prices, look at the "new starts" in Antique Aircraft restoration and look at the l"lower tier types". Whats the value or interest in the UC-78 today? How many of the restored UC-78's of the 1990's survive? A bright spot in Industry is in my mind Air Corps. and especially their AT-10 restoration/recreation. Very much a fan of the people spending their money recovering a type that was very important to the country.

The fashion, the spectacle of the BIG FISH and their P-82's or other one offs takes so much air out of the room. It also is the desire of most pilots to simply start at the top, and step into a T-6/SNJ briefly before flying the "big iron". We have a sense of the value and importance of the top level of the preserved aircraft in the country or world, but the values of many types has fallen. Aviation is also getting much harder to participate in thanks to FAA and market forces and it scares a lot of people off. Its a shame that this is true, but the movement starts here, in the simple stuff. The Champs, Cubs and L-16's can spawn L-5's and BT-13's. While it is spectacular to see 10 Mustangs together, several big shows now gather many more. While its a crowd pleaser, it is not the grassroots and its not approachable for many folks at all.

But dont confuse Industry with a Movement. There is an industry. I'm just not sure there is a big movement anymore...

I think I can speak to the restoration shops, that many, or perhaps all, seem busier than ever, at least those that I follow somewhat closely in the US, UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and Russia. Some are booked full for at least the next 5-6 years.

There will always be collectors...and where you have collectors you will have a few large collectors and a few larger collectors.

Also, look towards the new warbird owners.
At my field there is a guy who started with a T-28A, he liked it so much he bought a T-28B to keep it company.
And in a nearby town a guy started out with a collection of antique/classic civil types. He bought a P-40 to build experience, now he has a P-51 as well. He sponsors a great warbird gathering every July 4the at his field and opens it to the public with no admission fee. Given his level of enthusiasm, I wouldn't get against him building a larger collection.

Remember, even the maga-collectors started out with one aircraft. There was a time when Weeks was best known for his acrobatic aircraft.

Finally, remember to look beyond the well known guys. There are several collectors and collections with multiple aircraft, they just don't get the attention of an Allen, Collings, Yagen, POF, Fagan, etc.
The Historic Flight Foundation founded by John Sessions opened its new location near me. It has a Spitfire, P-51B, F8F (for sale...it would make a great Christmas gift), B-25, C-47/DC-3 ,T-6, PT-17, U-6, L-4 plus civil types like a Staggerwing, Hamilton Metalplane, WACO, Travel Air, Rapide (and he has said he has an active shopping list) and is an example of a healthy collection that isn't on most people's radar.

So yes, there is a lot of not great news, but look behind the gloom and doom headlines to get a more complete picture of the situation.

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Remember the vets, the wonderful planes they flew and their sacrifices for a future many of them did not live to see.

An interesting thread and one that gets you thinking, I too have often wondered what bumps might lie ahead.

What concerns me (I'm writing as an enthusiast rather than any kind of pilot/operator) is the future supply of higher octane fuels. It seems that 100LL (or equivalent) is slipping away as a commercial fuel and that historic owners/groups will in future have to "commission" batches of fuel for their own specialist use. Are there any operators already doing this or making plans to? If the fuel becomes super rare and/or super expensive to produce in specialist quantities it must surely have an impact on future prospects.

There’s a glut of warbirds over all, and a shortage of the most desirable warbird types. The heyday were the years building up to the 50th anniversary and reunions. 99% of the WW II veterans are gone. The market was absolutely flooded a few decades ago with flyable and project airplanes. T-6, T-34, T-28, Yaks, CJ’s and a few hundred surplus jets. The market for flyable jets is maybe 50 to 100 people. Many of these aircraft, to today’s young pilots are considered gas hogs, obsolete, and difficult to fly.
I’ve been paying $65 to $120 bucks an hour for IA & A&P work. I guess restoration shops are charging $200 to $300? So we have a situation where mechanics have elevated their incomes ( annualized at $130k to $240k per year, if they got forty hours per week). That’s more than pilots make and most small aircraft owners. Excluding mustangs, spitfires and a few others, I can’t imagine there will be very many new restorations in the future. The numbers don’t work.

The issue for the last 20 years has been that Everyman can’t own a warbird anymore. 30-40 years ago prices were far lower, the airplanes were far newer and there was still an industry around large recip engines -particularly radials. I knew “normal” people who owned and flew p-51’s, B-25’s, B-26’s, C-47’s etc. They could almost afford them.

And then The years went by, something expensive broke and they had to sell. Or they got old and had to sell and the airplanes were either so valuable (P-51) or so expensive to operate (B-25) that the airplane either sat and rotted or was sold to a rich guy.

Now all these airplanes are accumulating in collections instead of being spread around at every little field across the country. They are no longer attainable and they are not accessible either.

If you want to see one at an air show you can. But you’re not gonna find em at local airports and if you do find one, it won’t be maintained by the owner who might give you a ride if you hand him wrenches occasionally, cause the owner isn’t turning wrenches anymore. He has someone to do that for him, and that guy isn’t giving out free rides.

I seem to remember reading a quote from the BBMF just after the Lancaster was re-sparred what, 30 odd years ago, to the effect that the availability of fuel will likely be what grounds BBMF in the future.

All good and valid comments from everyone!

I personally just feel grateful. The past 10 years have been amazing....for the enthusiasts like me!

Cannot speaks about the movement since for sure my only contributions is watching.

But think again about the past 10 years....XP-82, Mosquito(s), Real 109's & FW190!...the replica movement: Me-262, 190's....etc...

The capacity to recreate from scratch P-51's & Spit's!!!

I think in the end it will also be either AVGAS....or passion. Who here wants to have a model T has their dream car? All things do fade away at one point.

Cheers and great discussion.

I
I don't disagree with your points, but I'm curious about the Model T reference?
I write for an antique car magazine so I know something about old cars.
If your point is old things (the newest Model T is 93 years old), I'd point out that even older cars still being big money...sometimes in the millions.

If your point is they might not be anyone 's dream because they're inexpensive and common, you're likely right. Despite their age, Ts are common as you might expect with some 15 million produced, it's the primary reason why they are so affordable...prices start well under $10k. While they are likely not many collectors dream car, some collectors will buy them because "something from the period" is better than nothing. The same way guys buy a $100k Stearman when what they really want is a Mustang or Corsair, guys will buy a T (or something else affordable) when what they really want is a $2-3 million Mercer Raceabout.

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Remember the vets, the wonderful planes they flew and their sacrifices for a future many of them did not live to see.

As time goes on there are less people who even know what these planes are, less people who know how to maintain them safely, less people who know how to fly them safely, less people who know how to operate them safely (the owners), and the insurance companies have taken notice. Avgas is becoming harder and harder to find. Yes, the golden years are behind us. Hopefully they will end up in a museum were we can actually see them.

Phil

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A man's got to know his limitations.

It is sobering to hear that some new pilots don't know what their feet are for.

I learned to fly at age 16. Most kids now don't even want to drive at 16. I don't know how many potential new blood will be available if there isn't exposure to Aviation like when I was young. It potentially could be cultured out. Hopefully the nostalgia group will always exist in some shape or form.

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Better is the enemy of Good.

You only have to look as far as some recent airline crashes as a result of airlines reducing basic knowledge in favour of automation, to see evidence of this.....AF447 in particular, compared with the outcome of the Hudson river ditching with Sully's experience of basic stick n rudder/gliding knowledge.

The Royal Air Force's continued operation of the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight (and Royal Navy Historic Flight in years gone by) in many ways, has been helping adding a few modern pilots to the warbird circuit, as well as expose current service pilots to 'real' flying which can't be a bad thing when translated to their day job of flying modern stuff for the air force.

My observation is that shops that have multiple customers seem to be doing well, and in fact some are growing. Others are just holding on. Some collectors are affected dramatically by the economy, and some aren't. While someone very wealthy might never approach personal insolvency, they probably wouldn't embark on a huge expense if the market in their industry took a tumble. Too many other things to worry about trying to stay rich.

I think the passion is still there to fly warbirds. At an airport like Chino, there are plenty of young folks interested. I think what is unclear is the path to success. If you have money you can buy your way in (a sometimes written, sometimes unwritten rule depending on the organization), but many volunteer for a long time and get little to nothing out of it if your real goal is to fly.

When the planes were cheaper and mostly play toys, individual owners would occasionally groom younger folks and let them solo their T-6 or T-28, or even occasionally their P-51. Now the expenses are much higher so it isn't as common.

The increased unaffordability of the fighters has also elevated the value of the advanced trainers. Look at old Ferraris. Even the lowly 308 is shooting up in value as the basic Ferrari roadgoing models from the sixties often trade in the million dollar plus range.

Plenty of art collectors have fantastic works on their living room walls, seldom seen by anyone but them. So it goes with warbirds. Some collectors want to start a museum and create a legacy, others just want to enjoy the planes themselves. Some owners probably don't care so much about the history of the aircraft or their personal legacy and just want to enjoy the planes for what they are- exciting and a challenge to fly. Airshows are often an excuse to fly and hang out with like-minded individuals (camaraderie).

There was a period when the aircraft were available surplus in flyable condition very inexpensively and it wasn't worth restoring one. As they went unserviceable they just sat derelict. Then gas prices got so high they weren't worthwhile as sport-planes (or commercially) either. As the value crept up it became worthwhile to resurrect many of them. Now the values are getting so high it often makes restorations from a data plate worthwhile. There are probably more flyable warbirds than ever right now, and prices continue to climb. If you extrapolate the trend they will go even higher, but that is using your rear view mirror to predict the future.

Just a bunch of random and rambling thoughts for the discussion here, my opinion only.

Where's the "like" button - X10 !!!

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Aerial Photographer with Red Wing Aerial Photography currently based at KRBD and tailwheel CFI.
Websites: Texas Tailwheel Flight Training, DoolittleRaid.com and Lbirds.com.

The horse is prepared against the day of battle: but safety is of the LORD. - Prov. 21:31 - Train, Practice, Trust.