whistlingdeath77 wrote:
Just a couple simple questions we can touch on. WHEN or IF do you guys feel the collings foundation will be able to start touring again? 2022? 2025? Never?
It will be a while, imo. There are two primary legal challenges that Collings have to contend with. First, is the civil suit from the survivors and deceased of the accident. That trial is not supposed to start until Feb of 2023. Of course it could be settled out of court, so the lawsuit could be resolved in fairly short order should both sides agree to a settlement. The second is the lawsuit generated by the FAA against Collings for alleged violations. The latest public documents indicate that the proposed hearing dates on that one won't start until April or May of 2022. My assumption is that the FAA won't approve a new exemption until the FAA lawsuit gets adjudicated first and also until the FAA approves the Collings Foundation's new rides program submission.
Based on the above, since the FAA is the only body that can approve a new exemption letter which would allow Collings to sell rides and consequently tour, one could reasonably infer that sometime after the FAA lawsuit gets settled would be the earliest before they could legally tour again. Therefore, I would speculate Summer of 2022 would be the earliest before any rides could be sold. It's also entirely possible it could take much longer - it's impossible to tell right now.
whistlingdeath77 wrote:
My second question would be, although the collings foundation was responsible etc, what could stop them from leasing their aircraft out to different organizations. OR, is there a way they start a brand new foundation with new department heads,( but collings is in the back.)?
Yes, they absolutely can lease their aircraft out, in fact, we've already seen a hint of that from them. Though it hasn't been confirmed by Collings, public information suggests that is exactly what is happening with Collings' intention to export their P-40 to England to support a foreign rides program. Leasing a warbird out to another operator has already happened with other organizations and the FAA doesn't care. Though there may be more, I know of at least 2 B-17's which were leased to other organizations to sell rides in the U.S. This leasing arrangement is not a big deal, as far as the FAA is concerned.
whistlingdeath77 wrote:
Just saying collings may lose their ride ticket, but if a brand new foundation popped up to run them and abide by the FAA whats to stop that?
Just a small correction here - the Collings Foundation has already lost their ride ticket. Their exemption letter was rescinded over a year ago. Yes, a brand new foundation can pop up, but it would be a "lease" arrangement, similar to what I talked about in the 2nd quote up above. If you are implying that somehow Collings can establish a "satellite" organization, but yet under the umbrella of Collings, but with a new name, to establish a new "identity" to gain approval - no that won't work, as the new organization would be given the same consideration as the parent Collings foundation. Yes, they could do that legally and create a new organization, but what would it accomplish? As far as the FAA is concerned, they would view that new organization in the same vein as Collings, imo. The FAA is not stupid and anything that touches Collings directly will be known by them and taken into consideration for any requests for a new exemption.
The following is just my opinion, and I could absolutely be wrong. Do I think Collings can tour again - absolutely yes! But, the path to make that happen will not be easy nor quick. I believe that the only way Collings could get their exemption letter back is to have an all new program that instills confidence in the FAA regarding their safety and compliance. This is most likely to only happen if Collings completely "reinvents" themselves with all new leadership, all new flight ops, all new procedures, all new manuals, all new Maintenance program, all new Safety program, etc. There is precedence for this and it has already happened with two ride operators who were able to regain rescinded exemptions due to safety issues. One organization had a fatality and the other one didn't. The fact that the B-17 accident had 7 fatalities, though, will probably make this a very tough, stringent road for Collings with very challenging hurdles to overcome before they gain favor from the FAA. Rob Collings is a very smart businessman and is no dummy when it comes to developing a successful business model to overcome challenges. There is a reason that Collings has been so successful in the many decades leading up to the accident, and it's no doubt due to Rob Collings' leadership and business acumen. We've already seen evidence of him changing his business model, post-Crash, and I believe we will continue to see it evolve as more things get settled. I honestly hope and believe that Collings will come back from this. I do believe they will tour again at some point, but I just don't know exactly when. There are too many variables that have to be settled before we see any definitive timelines emerge from all of this.
By the way, all of the information on the above was gleaned from public documents available on the internet to anyone. I have been following this closely since the accident and paying particular attention to court records, FAA documents, and lawsuit filings. Combining this, plus my warbird knowledge of the industry and talking to many folks much more informed than me, has led to my above perspective/opinion. I sincerely wish Collings the best in all of this and hope they are able to learn from this tragedy, put it behind them, and return to their important mission of touring and educating the public. For the warbird industry's benefit as a whole, and indeed all of our benefit's, let's hope that Collings is able to overcome all of these challenges.