Warbird Information Exchange

DISCLAIMER: The views expressed on this site are the responsibility of the poster and do not reflect the views of the management.
It is currently Thu Mar 28, 2024 3:33 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Classic Wings Magazine WWII Naval Aviation Research Pacific Luftwaffe Resource Center
When Hollywood Ruled The Skies - Volumes 1 through 4 by Bruce Oriss


Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Author Message
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 8:56 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:42 pm
Posts: 172
Location: Australia
Image

The same man in both photos? Really?

_________________
www.B17BlackJack.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:05 pm 
Offline
1000+ Posts!
1000+ Posts!

Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 7:31 pm
Posts: 1089
Location: Caribou, Maine
Zorro9 makes several comments

Quote:
Four items seem to stand out when you look at this intriguing B/W photograph:

1. The striking resemblance to Capt Fred J. Noonan & the findings of the H/C Image expert relating to his face features found in the original photo.

2. The back of a female Caucasian poss AE glancing at her aircraft nearby.

3. Something that looks like an aircraft on a barge near a Japanese ship originally misidentified by the H/C folks

4. The lack of Japanese guards in the area


To begin, there are comments online from at least two people who appear to have the book in their hands: Appears to be little question that the book was published in 1935, and thus cannot be AE and FN. However, the photo may well be from Jaluit Island.

My comments on those of Zorro9:

1&2. Frankly, the photos are fuzzy enough that I see no particular reason to think the two figures to be Caucasian, or the seated one to be female. I think the conclusions drawn by the History Channel are a lot of wishful thinking, and jumping to conclusions. ( HC is, I think, unlikely to recant on these conclusions; they have never second-guessed on any of the really silly ancient aliens and mermaids-are-real pieces they have presented. )

3. The "barge" behind the freighter includes some kind of aircraft-like appearance, but again the photo is fuzzy and this could just as easily be - and Occam's Razor would say this is more likely to be - the sails of another pleasure boat, of which there are others in the picture.

4. The lack of Japanese guards has been made by many. If AE and FN were truly captured and held as spies, they would have been heavily guarded, and likely kept well out of the sight of any civilians.

The entire captured-by-the-Japanese thesis has a serious flaw in that this makes the assumption that the Japanese would do this in 1937. But 1937 was a lot different than 1940/41. While American-Japanese relations were a bit strained, they were much better than later, and I think the Japanese would have jumped at the chance to gain all the goodwill associated with a rescue and return of AE and FN. Furthermore, there have been people who have studied this from the Japanese side, and studied this pretty hard and likely with hopes of finding AE, but find no evidence of such Japanese custody. Enough time has passed that if they were in Japanese custody, better evidence would likely have been found.

The eyewitness testimony from the Marshal Islands is all made decades after the event, and is quite inconsistent (there are, for example, a number of eye-witness burial sites for AE and FN). These reports were made to people who asked leading questions and sought specific answers. This is all a lot like the stories about the early aviation experimenter Gustave Whitehead in Connecticut - the testimony is made to people who are heavily biased, and is itself suspect. Memories play tricks over time, and people say all kinds of things to gain attention.

I will say again: the lack of any consistent or hard evidence after the last radio message from AE in flight and near Howland suggests that they are now in deep water near the location of that last message. I think Occam's Razor suggests that to be the most logical conclusion.

_________________
Kevin McCartney


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:20 pm 
Offline
1000+ Posts!
1000+ Posts!
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2006 7:18 pm
Posts: 1933
Location: Meriden,Ct.
"This is all a lot like the stories about the early aviation experimenter Gustave Whitehead in Connecticut - the testimony is made to people who are heavily biased, and is itself suspect."

Those are fighting words... :P

FYI - I think I see Bigfoot on the dock and the Loch Ness monster behind the ship..... :lol:

Phil

_________________
A man's got to know his limitations.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Tue Jul 18, 2017 11:08 pm 
Offline
Long Time Member
Long Time Member
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:27 am
Posts: 5228
Location: Eastern Washington
One question has been overlooked by everyone:

Can you use Occam's razor to shave Schrodinger's cat?

_________________
Remember the vets, the wonderful planes they flew and their sacrifices for a future many of them did not live to see.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 4:32 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:11 pm
Posts: 671
S.B:

Hi!

Sorry, but your B/W photo of Capt Fred Noonan is fm a different time frame. A lot earlier than 1937!! There is another most recent B/W of him & AE taken at Natal, Brazil, on June 11, 1937 during that flight that shows much better features. Will upload it in 24 hrs or less for the AE audience to decide.


Image


Last edited by zorro9 on Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:31 pm, edited 4 times in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:03 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:11 pm
Posts: 671
Old Iron:

Hi! Tks for your time fine & data on the AE saga!!

Do these 2 books that appear on WWW show w/o a doubt the same Japanese Stamp dates of Oct 1935??? Are the B/w photos exactly the same??

The only question about the Jaluit Island find is that AE was way off, some 400-500 NM of the reverse course that some suggest AE intended to follow as a last resource. So the 2 folks may not be them at all. Also, in question on the time-line sequence of events is how HC places AE, FN & their poss a/c all at the same time & same place.

Lots of folks agree with you including the "Hooven Report" that the a/c went down in the vicinity of Howland Island/Guilbert islands area. However, Mr. David Billings still has a strong lead with the finding of the poss P/W engine tag showing the a/c CN #1055 by some AU patrol folks in New Britain!!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 5:15 pm 
Offline

Joined: Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:08 pm
Posts: 63
Location: Left Coast
Steve Birdsall wrote:
I really shouldn't add to all the speculation, but the US versions of the photograph were probably included in a file of similar photos in an effort to get as much information as possible about Japanese installations in the Pacific. I seem to recall stories about Japanese tourists taking photos around Pearl Harbor before the war, and British intelligence called on members of the public who had recently holidayed in Germany for similar reasons.

You're more right than you realize. The US government put out specific requests for any and all materials related to Japan. This could have been photos, home movies, maps, travel brochures, etc. I have a letter from the government (can't remember which department off the top of my head) thanking my grandfather for the materials he had provided.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Wed Jul 19, 2017 7:10 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:42 pm
Posts: 172
Location: Australia
zorro9 wrote:
S.B:

Hi!

Sorry but your B/W photo of Capt Fred Noonan is fm a different time frame. A lot earlier than 1937!! There is another most recent B/W of him & AE taken in Brazil, during that flight that shows much better features. Will upload it in 24 hrs or less for the AE audience to decide.


Image


Not so . . . the photo I used was taken in Oakland with Earhart, Manning and Mantz in March 1937,

Either way, neither Noonan image bears any real resemblance to the dark-skinned man in the Jaluit photo.

Seriously, if so-called "facial recognition expert" Ken Gibson really said "The hairline is the most distinctive characteristic . . . It's a very sharp receding hairline . . . The nose is very prominent . . . It's my feeling that this is very convincing evidence that this is probably Noonan" he should hang his head in shame.

_________________
www.B17BlackJack.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:12 am 
Offline
a.k.a. TBDude
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:54 pm
Posts: 623
Location: Southern California
zorro9 wrote:
The photo itself can not be dismissed at this point!

The Jaluit dock photo was unequivocally, demonstrably published on October 5, 1935 .. nearly 2 years before the events of the Earhart disappearance. Therefore, it cannot possibly depict Amelia and Fred (who hadn't yet met) or c/n 1055 (which had not yet been built). QED the photo may be dismissed from the AE case with extreme prejudice.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:22 am 
Offline
a.k.a. TBDude
User avatar

Joined: Mon Aug 14, 2006 10:54 pm
Posts: 623
Location: Southern California
Image
zorro9 wrote:
Sorry but your B/W photo of Capt Fred Noonan is fm a different time frame. A lot earlier than 1937!!

Sorry, but Steve's photo was cropped from a well known shot of Noonan with Earhart and the rest of her crew (Harry Manning and Paul Mantz) in front of the Electra just before their departure for Hawaii from Oakland, CA on March 17, 1937.

It's a good idea to research this stuff a little before posting.


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:54 pm 
Offline
1000+ Posts!
1000+ Posts!

Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 7:31 pm
Posts: 1089
Location: Caribou, Maine
zorro9 asks:

Quote:
Do these 2 books that appear on WWW show w/o a doubt the same Japanese Stamp dates of Oct 1935??? Are the B/w photos exactly the same??


I do not know. My point was that this is probably not a rare book (one critic says the "1935" should not be given credence based on a single one-off copy). As best as I can tell, the 1935 date is solid, as mentioned by a couple of other WIXers.

Quote:
Lots of folks agree with you including the "Hooven Report" that the a/c went down in the vicinity of Howland Island/Guilbert islands area. However, Mr. David Billings still has a strong lead with the finding of the poss P/W engine tag showing the a/c CN #1055 by some AU patrol folks in New Britain!!


In the context of my general review: People tend to use fuel estimates that support their hypotheses. Elgin Long had I thought pretty detailed calculations that show AE to have been just about out of gas at the time of the last in-flight message. In that message, AE stated that she would shortly send another message on a different wavelength. That message never came, and Long thinks a reasonable explanation is that she quickly had her hands full with a glider, likely at fairly low altitude. In the last hour AE had sent a "nearly out of gas" message and earwitnesses said she sounded increasingly stressed. Advocates of other destinations speculate that the "nearly out of gas" may not take into account a reserve, but that message in the context of Long's calculations suggests that she should be taken at her word.

Advocates of Mili/Nikumaroro/New Britain calculate that there was more gasoline, used at a slower rate, to thus get the LE to the more distant location. But these explanations do not explain the absence of later airborne messages; the absence of these later messages also reduce the likelihood that post-landing messages are legitimate. There are no airborne messages stating "we are heading to the secondary destination ***" (the 157/337 heading was through Howland, not to Nikumaroro), and we should expect these prior to "I have landed at ***". Various people say that AE was planning to head to *** if necessary, but as far as I know offhand, all these are remembrances after the fact and not written/recorded by AE before the flight. The absence of this evidence means that *** theories need to have convincing solid evidence if they are to be readily believable; so far, such evidence has not been presented.

The "CN # 1055" tag is interesting, for sure, but that is just a marginal penciled marking on a topographic map (the tag itself has been lost), with the witnesses interviewed long after the event. I am not sure I would call this a "strong lead". New Britain is also a long ways from Howland, and there is inadequate evidence that she would have gone in this direction. We all hope that Dave finds his airplane, but odds are this is not the LE.

There are, by the way, a bunch of good reasons why AE would have had a tough time seeing Howland Island, even if close to it. There were sporadic clouds (at least in the location where she was at) whose shadows hindered the identification of an island, and she was heading more-or-less straight into a just-risen sun (there is abundant evidence of not very careful planning; If she had an unexpected tailwind she might have passed Howland in the dark). The marking for the location of Howland on FN's map was also not very accurate. She had to have been tired, stressed, and had only two eyes to dedicate to the search -- FN was in a back compartment behind the wing; even if FN saw the island from his small side window, he may have had a tough time getting AE's attention in a timely manner (they communicated by written messages).

_________________
Kevin McCartney


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Thu Jul 20, 2017 4:26 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:11 pm
Posts: 671
OldIron:

Hi! Tks again for you excellent findings and data on the AE saga!!

There is prob another book coming out on just the AE radio tx or no transmissions at all!! Or the ones floating around the globe for a few days after July 2, 1937!!

I tend to agree with you about her poss location near Howland island & the weather conditions in the area at the poss time of arrival. Yes, both of them were very tired after many long days around the globe. Anything that could have gone wrong ...it did before Howland or passing Howland island. One thing that you prob do not hear about is their lack of sleep time & how they look on take-off at New Guinea. It was not a smooth take-off & heard some stories also of loosing a small radio antenna.

Another item missing in many books are the reports of the ITASCA USN folks already on Howland, setting the radio/receiver/antenna on the island. Did they report seeing an a/c?? Did they report hearing a/c engines nearby?? How long were these folks on Howland?? Do we have an activity report log of these folks at all?? Mr. D. Billings still has some work to do. There were other Civ Lockheed 10 Electras in New Guinea since c. 1930s or so!!


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 5:11 pm 
Offline
1000+ Posts!
1000+ Posts!

Joined: Thu Jan 25, 2007 7:31 pm
Posts: 1089
Location: Caribou, Maine
The History Channel has announced that they will not be streaming or rerunning the Amelia Earhart documentary pending a study into the validity of the key evidence:

http://variety.com/2017/tv/news/amelia-earhart-1202499852/

_________________
Kevin McCartney


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:57 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2008 1:42 pm
Posts: 172
Location: Australia
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, they come up with.

The still quite wide acceptance of the assertion that there are two “Caucasians” in that photo continues to surprise me.

To my eye, that person on the dock’s skin colour best matches the (presumably) Marshallese in the photo, such as the woman in the yacht. What appears to be light or white skin is just a reflection of the sunlight on his forehead – in contrast to his sleeveless forearm, for instance.

Image

_________________
www.B17BlackJack.com


Top
 Profile  
 
PostPosted: Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:56 pm 
Offline

Joined: Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:11 pm
Posts: 671
AE Saga Folks:

Ok..Ok....now we have some id issues with the poss Capt Fred Noonan B/w & what appears to be some type of a/c on a barge nearby.

While we wait for a second Japanese Book authenticity & the stamped date to match book #1,.. here is still another $64,000 question???

Who then, is the poss Caucasian/European female (in red circle) with her back to the camera at Jaluit Atoll, Marshall Islands glancing towards a poss a/c on barge showing an AE poss style haircut for that particular flight??? Will upload photo again in 24 or less for the AE audience to compare some notes. 2 B cont....Photo via H/Channel Special.

Image


Last edited by zorro9 on Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 59 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot] and 84 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group